Why I think UUUU is a prime candidate after the run-up
Disclaimer: This is Not Financial Advice
Hi everyone,
It’s time due for me to write a reevaluation for myself, so I will also write this for everyone to discuss/evaluate your own decision. After the recent run-up, many people in us don’t have any more certainty in UUUU, so let’s evaluate logically on this company both internal and external factor.
1. Government Involvement:
We have known 3 types of possible for UUUU involvement with US government from their peers:
- Direct funding with equity like MP or Intel
- Project finance for Critical Mineral like LAC
- Strategic partnership like Cameco
Let’s go one by one:
Direct Funding with Equity:
In my opinion, this is the lowest chance that might happen. Why ?
Pros: This direct funding happens if the company considers as “National Champion” asset.
UUUU meets these requirements:
- “Only” licensed uranium mill
- “Only” facility that process radioactive monazite sands
- “Only” facility that can do heavy REE in the US
These requirements makes UUUU as a strategic position to be a “national” asset
Cons: Does UUUU actually need it ?
Let’s dive into our example: MP and Intel.
I. MP and Intel Situation:
In the nearest financial report, MP shows that they have $930M in debt. They are operating at loss for 43M also. Looking at MP, they are deeply in debt. Their debt to equity was 93%
On the other hand, Intel has a better position with only $44B in debt and with the better operating income as $4B. Their debt to equity was 48%. Moreover, they are trending down due to the dominance of Nvidia and AMD.
These two companies have the same situation: They need the catalyst to push them up, but also immediate cash to run the business.
II. UUUU situation:
Different from the two company above, if you neglect the new offering with $700M, UUUU debt to equity ratio is 0% (basically debt free). So why UUUU will be taken stake by the government when the company is doing so well that are almost profitable ?
With those comparison, clearly, UUUU won’t be taken stake by the US government.
Project Finance like LAC
This is more approachable. Let’s go over projects that UUUU have now and what they need for the money:
- Donald Project (Australia): This project needs $300M
- Phase 2 REE Production in White Mesa: There is no number disclosed in this. However I will assume they will take it from $700M offering (let’s just take 400M).
- Bahia Project (Brazil): No idea, but seems like this is not famously known.
- Toliara Project (Madagascar): Madagascar are in chaos, so I will neglect this
- Roca Honda Project (New Mexico): The estimated was $55M for development with average price as $65.67 per pound Uranium
In these project, potentially, the US government will finance the Roca Honda Project due to geography, and the needs of Uranium due to electricity and weapons (nuclear testing).
Strategic Partnership like Cameco
Some people I know told me that partnership with Cameco might prove that US government might not need Uranium from Energy Fuels.
Let’s talk about possible partnership and why they need to partnership with UUUU:
- DOE with Uranium Cycle:
First of all, DOE has selected 4 projects for nuclear reactor, and their is a link like this
****When I get into this, it seems that HALEU is explicitly says not available with current domestic partners.
Moreover, DOE established the HALEU Consortium to help inform activities carried out by the Department to secure a domestic supply of HALEU through the HALEU Availability Program.
Imagine who is potentially membership in that HALEU Consortium?
Yes, UUUU. It applied since 2022
So the nearest that they have for domestic Uranium supply chain potentially is Energy Fuels.
- DoD via DLA for Critical Minerals:
During October, Pentagon has launched $1B initiative to secure the critical minerals, and this is via the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA).
Going to DLA website that materials of interest, all three REE that UUUU offers (NdPR, Dy and Tb) are in interest. A partnership via DLA is possible
- DoE - MESC & AMMTO for Critical Minerals
Different from DoD, DoE also announced a new funding with $1B to build domestic critical minerals supply chain.
This consists of two different offices:
- The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO): offers for around $50M for rare-earth
- The Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC): offers for around $635M funding.
Unless there is some other critical mineral company that I don’t know, highly chance UUUU will be positioned for at least one grants from these offices.
2. Non-intervention scenario:
We need to also analyze UUUU in a case that we won’t receive any grants/funding from government, and how UUUU will become a successful company
Uranium aspect:
Energy Fuels is one of the companies that has the most profitable Uranium mining procedure ($20-$30 cost for Pinyon Plain). Moreover, Energy Fuel expect to stockpile almost 1 Million pounds of yellow cake in the end of this year.
Suppose we take a long term price for Uranium ($83 from Cameco), so the revenue of sales in Uranium already $83M (which is already higher revenue compared to 2024 with $73M with 13% YoY increase)
Rare Earth element:
For this aspect, UUUU is a monster.
Vanadium:
If you don’t know, Vanadium is 90% used in Steel market, however are keep seeing interest in the energy storage field. Vanadium is also largely exported by China, Russia, and South Africa and Brazil.
Vanadium is quite cheap $5/pound, and Energy Fuels is holding it in inventory for around 1M pound. I doubt they will sell any Vanadium with this price, so suppose Vanadium prices double and they sell. That’s already $10M in revenue.
Light REE:
Different from other miners, UUUU have found their customer: Vulcan Elements. UUUU has a great potential in scaling in light REE, and expect to fully commercial 2026.
A potential risk is that they needs their own Feedstock (except for Chemours). But that will be supported by Donald Project in the next year if everything looks good and executed well
Heavy REE:
Everyone bets on UUUU due to “only” heavy REE mill so whose is the customer for this:
- US government
- Vulcan Elements for US defense
Many people cannot distinct between Vulcan Elements and Vulcan Material
- Vulcan Elements: It is a private startup focused on rare earth magnets
- Vulcan Materials: A publicly traded construction materials company
Vulcan Elements is a mainly customer for heavy REE and Light REE. They are startup that builds the magnets for specifically US military.
Even Chris Miller explicitly told Vulcan as an amazing startup, but who is him ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_C._Miller
Yup, he is Former US Secretary of Defense in President Trump’s first term.
Conclusion: For me this is quite a long research, but it was fun. I believe in 4U will rise higher as Western countries are finding the alternative to China’s supply chain.
Take for example, the biggest guy in REE in China was China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech with a market cap as 200B. If UUUU executes well, a 20B valuation market cap is possible for solely REE for the US
TLDR: Buy UUUU more today!
Posted Oct 30, 2025, 3:55 PM UTC