Go all electric or stick with oil for backup heat?

Currently have a 21 yr old AC unit paired with a 46 year old oil furnace. Electrical panel is a mess and probably 46 years old as well. 200A service currently. Want to also add an EV charger. Time for an upgrade!

DC area — some cold days in the winter but not many days below 15F.

I’m considering two options and looking for input. I’ve spent 5 days dealing with a million HVAC contractors and I’m learning a lot but it’s so hard when everyone just tells me what they think I want to hear instead of giving me actual guidance. Hopefully someone here can help me!

Option 1 (Keeping Oil as Backup): Convert AC unit to a heat pump (possibly Carrier 27SPA636) and replace oil furnace with new model. I would still upgrade my electrical panel with a new one, but no need to add more amperage even with the added EV charger. Estimate I’ve received so far was around 14k for the HVAC and another 5k for electrical. No tax credit.

Option 2 (All electric): Convert AC unit to heat pump (possibly Carrier 27VNA or Lennox EL18KSLV), replace oil furnace with air handler + heating coil, upgrade electrical panel and also likely need to add amperage or subpanel. Electrician is coming out in 2 days to give more info. Estimate I’ve received so far was ~17k for Carrier and ~21k for Lennox, although the Lennox proposal was also removing my oil tank for me. Electrical probably close to 13k if I have to go up to 400A service. 2k tax credit.