CMV: The 2025 elections don’t actually represent a meaningful sustainable shift towards Democrats.

As a left leaning person, I’m very happy with how yesterday went. I wish that it was representative of a national opinion shift that could last to 2026 or even 2028, but I truly don’t believe it is so.

One point of mine is that most of the covered races were in already blue states.

Of course, Virginia is blue with a tinge of purple, NJ is blue, and NYC is very blue.

Blue states are expected to put blue people in power and that’s what happened yesterday.

The second thing is that turnout is lower in these nonpresidential elections. So these off season elections don’t actually account for the droves of people who will be running to elect the Republicans in 2026 and especially 2028.

The one exception could be Georgia’s elections. Yes, the Dems won statewide by around 60+% each, but I think it’s silly to draw conclusions based off a utilities position election.

Another point that is US House specific is that Republican gerrymandering is still a thing. Even with a meaningful shift, it is likely to be invalidated by gerrymandering.

While it’s not necessary for this to happen, it becomes exacerbated if Republicans successfully get the equal population rule repealed, allowing red states to make each big city a single district instead of the current system where all districts within a state are roughly equal.