**Ukrainian drones and missiles disabled 20% of Russia’s refinery capacity in recent attacks, but Moscow limited losses to a 6% drop by activating idle units at other plants.**

Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes knocked 20% of Russia’s refinery capacity offline between August and October, yet the disruption cut output by only 3-6% as Moscow relied on idle units to absorb the damage, Russian industry sources told Reuters.

Russia’s oil processing has fallen just 3% this year. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s attacks resulted in a 6% drop in total Russian refining volumes, according to Reuters. 

Refining output fell to around 5.1 million barrels per day during that period – roughly 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than a year earlier – despite strikes on at least 17 major refineries since the start of 2025, according to Reuters data.

Russia’s total refining capacity is around 6.6 million barrels per day, but sources told Reuters the industry rarely produced such volumes.

Most of the attacks occurred early in the year and then resumed in August, forcing Russia, the world’s second-largest crude exporter, to curb fuel exports and deploy additional air defenses around key energy infrastructure. 

Industry sources told Reuters that Russian refineries had been running well below full capacity before the strikes, giving operators room to restart spare units at both damaged and undamaged plants and to bring attacked units back online once repairs were completed. 

From January to October, Russia’s oil processing fell to around 220 million metric tons (5.2 million bpd), down 3% from last year. 

The breakdown between planned and unplanned maintenance was not available. Russia no longer publishes detailed refining data, and the country’s energy ministry declined to comment.

The drone campaign has still had a visible impact. In the first quarter, Ukraine struck major refineries in Ryazan, Volgograd, Saratov, Tuapse, Ufa and Astrakhan, the media outlet wrote. 

Since early August, Ukraine has launched at least 58 attacks on Russian energy facilities, sending drones up to 2,000 km (1,200 miles) inside Russian territory, according to data compiled by the UK-based non-profit Open Source Centre cited by Reuters. 

Ukrainian drones also hit refineries in Novokuibyshevsk, Kirishi and Salavat since August.

Western sanctions have complicated Russia’s access to spare parts from Western suppliers that upgraded much of its refining system over the past three decades. 

Russian firms say they have substituted domestic components or imports from China. Repairs have generally allowed distillation units to return within weeks, industry sources told Reuters, but they are costly and sometimes require more time, raising uncertainty about how long Russia can continue relying on unused capacity if strikes persist.

Ukraine says its drone campaign aims to disrupt fuel supplies for Russian troops and reduce Moscow’s oil revenues, according to the article. 

The International Energy Agency reported that Russia’s crude and oil product income in August fell to one of the lowest levels since the war began. President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month that long-range strikes may have reduced gasoline supplies in Russia by up to a fifth. The Kremlin maintains the domestic fuel market remains stable.

Russia’s oil export revenues slipped to $13.4 billion in September 2025, down about $0.2 billion month-on-month, as a rise in crude earnings was offset by a $0.4 billion drop in oil product revenues, according to the KSE Institute.

Sanctions enforcement also remained weak, with 153 shadow-fleet tankers operating in September and 109 sanctioned vessels loading in Russian ports as all Russian crude grades traded above the EU’s revised price cap.

Ukraine’s Strikes Take 20% of Russia’s Oil Refining Offline, but Output Falls Only 3-6%