r/IndianStockMarket•10 mo. ago

21-Nov-25 Market performance summary and outlook for Monday

DISCLAIMER: - I'm not an expert and nether am I suggesting any investment option in my post. This is my personal news-based analysis I am only sharing it in hopes of getting constructive feedback and becoming more knowledgeable over time. Any "prediction" like statement is meant to just indicate the probable market direction and that too only at the start of session.

Previous post link: [Tomorrow morning (21st Nov) could be bad. Be careful. : r/IndianStockMarket](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStockMarket/comments/1p2croo/tomorrow_morning_21st_nov_could_be_bad_be_careful/)

Summary of Last Session (Friday, Nov 21, 2025)

The market ended the week on a volatile and negative note, driven by weak global cues. Friday’s session seemed to be a case of Profit Booking at Resistance amidst global caution.

NIFTY 50 Closing: 26,068.15 (Down 124 points or -0.47%)
The Real Driver: The market reacted to the gap up and then fall in US Markets from Thursday (Nov 20)
- Although Nvidia posted great numbers, the US market's inability to hold gains on Thursday night made traders nervous
- This had also impacted other Asian markets, which were in red
- This triggered "weekend profit booking" ahead of the monthly expiry
Technical View: The index attempted to sustain above the breakout level of 26,200 but failed, confirming it as a stiff resistance zone
Sectoral Moves:
- IT Sector: Saw mild profit booking after the recent run-up
- Banks: Remained range-bound, providing stability at lower levels
Institutional Activity:
- FIIs: Net Sellers of ~₹1,766 Cr (Continuing the selling spree)
- DIIs: Net Buyers of ~₹3,162 Cr (Absorbing the selling pressure)

Outlook for Monday, November 24, 2025

The outlook for Monday has shifted from Negative to Gap-Up but Volatile due to a strong reversal in global markets over the weekend (so far).

1. Implied Opening: Positive

GIFT Nifty Cue: The GIFT Nifty ended the week strong, trading around 26,190 – 26,200 (early Saturday close)
Implied Start: This indicates a potential Gap-Up Opening of 100+ points, suggesting Nifty could open near 26,180 – 26,200

2. The Global Rebound (Bullish Factor)

While markets were worried about Thursday's US drop, the US markets staged a strong recovery on Friday night.

Dow Jones: Up ~1.0% (+490 points)
Nasdaq: Up ~0.9%
This positive handover will force short-sellers (who bet on a crash Friday) to cover their positions at the open

3. The Expiry Eve Effect (Critical Factor)

Expiry Date: Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 (Monthly Expiry)
Monday's Action: Since Monday is the day before the monthly expiry, a Gap-Up opening will put massive pressure on Call Writers who sold 26,100 and 26,200 Calls on Friday
Short Covering: As these writers rush to cover their losses, it could fuel a sharp rally in the first hour, potentially pushing Nifty past 26,250

4. Technical Levels for Monday

Resistance: 26,200 – 26,250
- If Nifty opens gap-up near 26,200, wait. Don't chase. Watch if it sustains for the first 15 minutes. If it fails to hold 26,200, it might fill the gap
Support: 26,000
- As long as 26,000 holds, the trend remains Buy on Dips

Sample Sources (used more, but lost in tabs jungle now):

Posted Nov 22, 2025, 2:33 AM UTC