One thing people forget: lithium supply growth has massively underperformed expectations since 2022

A lot of the lithium oversupply talk still relies on project timelines and output forecasts that never actually materialized.

Across 2022–2024, most of the “headline” supply additions showed delays, lower recoveries, or partial shutdowns once prices dropped.

Meanwhile, the demand side hasn’t collapsed at all; ESS keeps climbing, LFP production is still expanding, and Chinese producers cut output rather than run at a loss.

Feels like the market priced in a supply wave that simply never arrived.

If the next year follows the same pattern, we could be looking at a much tighter market than most people expect.

Curious: does anyone here still see oversupply into 2025, or are we past that point?