This week brings a fuller data calendar, with six economic reports, including one major release delayed by the shutdown. Several other delayed releases have been canceled or merged into next month’s reporting cycle, so most of this week’s indicators come from agencies unaffected by the shutdown. With multiple high-impact releases and renewed focus on inflation and employment, mortgage-rate markets should expect meaningful day-to-day movement.

Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET)

• November’s ISM Manufacturing Index is expected at 49.0 (up slightly from 48.7).
• A reading below 50 signals contraction and would be good for rates.
• A stronger-than-expected increase would suggest firmer manufacturing activity and could pressure mortgage rates higher.
• This is an unusually important Monday release and will likely influence the day’s rate sheets.

Wednesday: ADP Jobs, Industrial Production, ISM Services

• ADP Employment (8:15 AM ET): Forecast +20k jobs vs. +42k last month.
  • A smaller gain or outright decline would support bonds and suggest growing labor-market softness, which could push rates lower.
• Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET): Expected +0.1%.
  • A flat reading would be neutral; a stronger gain could apply upward pressure on rates, though this report rarely dominates trading.
• ISM Services (10:00 AM ET): Forecast 52.1 vs. 52.4 prior.
  • A softer reading would help mortgage pricing; a stronger one would imply broader economic resilience and could push rates higher.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

• Claims expected at 219,000, up slightly from 216,000.
• Higher claims indicate cooling labor conditions and are generally rate-friendly.
• Lower claims point to labor-market strength, which tends to pressure rates upward.

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) + Consumer Sentiment

• Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM ET): Expected +0.4% for both income and spending.
• Key focus is the PCE inflation indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation measures.
  • Headline PCE: +0.3% expected
  • Core PCE: +0.2% expected
• Smaller increases would be very favorable for bond markets and mortgage rates.
• Even though this data is from September, the lack of recent inflation readings makes this release highly market-moving.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Expected to rise modestly.
  • A lower reading would signal softer consumer confidence and would be bond-friendly.

Bottom line:

Friday is the most important day of the week, given the PCE inflation data’s direct influence on the Fed’s rate-cut calculus heading into the December meeting. Monday’s ISM report is also highly relevant and could set the tone early. With multiple influential reports and a mix of labor, manufacturing, inflation, and sentiment data, rate volatility is likely, and borrowers still floating should stay in close contact with their mortgage professional.