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r/swingtrading•
roxy123_

I built a stage 2 stock screener in TradingView and am contemplating if buy & hold is better after all

TLDR: I am an amateur to swing trading. Know almost zero about coding or algo trading as well. My goal is to generate some sort of monthly income and beat S&P500 returns from trading. Tried reading a few books by Mark Minervini + Stan Weinstein and decided to try something fun with the AI tools out there. Spent weeks building a "perfect" trading strategy, backtested it, and got destroyed by buy & hold. Learned that stock selection >> timing. Pivoted to building a screening tool instead and am having serious doubts on whether if buy and hold strategy of quality stocks is better after all. Please rain me with all your brutal honest feedback on whether if I'm heading in the right or wrong direction.

The Process:

  1. Went on reddit and searched for "the best books to learn swing trading".

  2. Downloaded all the ebooks listed there

  3. Asked ChatGPT what it needs to build a perfect swing trading strategy on TradingView (Pine script). ChatGPT came up with parameters like Entry Conditions, Stop Loss rules, etc etc.

  4. Went to NotebookLLM, uploaded all the ebooks into 1 conversation, pasted the parameters requested by ChatGPT and asked it to answer those based on the information from those books.

  5. Pasted NotebookLLM's response back to ChatGPT. Only from there i realised ChatGPT sucks at coding pine scripts (had so many error messages) and Claude was better.

  6. Turned to Claude and from there had a LENGTHY conversation (the below summarised by Claude):

What I Tried to Build

A Pine Script strategy using Mark Minervini/William O'Neil methods:

  • 8-criteria Trend Template
  • VCP patterns
  • Volume confirmation
  • Pivot breakouts
  • Stop losses and targets

Problem 1: Tested on NVDA and AAPL. Got zero trades.

Too many filters required perfect alignment. That never happened.

Problem 2: Losing Money

Relaxed the filters. Got trades but lost money.

  • Win rate: 60%+
  • Still negative P&L

Why? Exits were terrible:

  • 7.5% stops hit on normal pullbacks
  • 20% targets rarely reached
  • Small losses > occasional wins

Problem 3: Can't Beat Buy & Hold

Backtested 2015-2025:

NVDA:

  • Buy & Hold: +1,500%
  • Strategy: +47%

AAPL:

  • Buy & Hold: +300%
  • Strategy: +26%

By the time all criteria aligned, stocks had already moved 30-50% from base. Entering late = missing the best gains.

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The Realization

Trying to time NVDA in 2024 is pointless. Should be finding the next NVDA in 2015. The problem wasn't timing. It was stock selection.

What we privoted to build Instead

A Stage 2 Qualifier Indicator that:

  • Scores stocks 0-100 on 8 trend criteria
  • Shows green label when Stage 2 confirmed (100/100)
  • Color backgrounds: green = hold, yellow = caution, orange = danger, red = exit
  • Warning system before major breakdowns

The Scoring System

🟢 100/100: Stage 2 active, hold
🟡 87.5-100: Weakening, watch closely
🟠 50-75: Stage 3 probable, prepare exit
🔴 <50: Exit now

Usage:

  1. Screen small/mid-caps with good fundamentals

  2. Apply indicator

  3. Buy when score = 100/100

  4. Hold through pullbacks

  5. Exit on red signals (death cross or 200MA break)

The 8 Criteria

  1. Price > 150 MA and 200 MA
  2. 150 MA > 200 MA
  3. 200 MA trending up
  4. 50 MA > 150 MA and 200 MA
  5. Price > 50 MA
  6. Price ≥ 30% above 52-week low
  7. Price within 25% of 52-week high
  8. Outperforming SPY

All 8 met = Stage 2 confirmed = 100/100 score

Manually Screened:

  1. Market Cap: $500M - $50B (small to mid-cap sweet spot)
  2. Sector: Focus on growth sectors (Tech, Healthcare, Consumer)
  3. Price: $5 - $200 (avoid penny stocks)
  4. Average Volume: > 500,000 shares/day
  5. 52-Week Performance: +30% to +200% (showing momentum but not parabolic)
  6. Institutional Ownership: < 50% (still undiscovered)
  7. Revenue Growth: > 20% YoY (last 2 quarters)
  8. Earnings Growth: Positive and accelerating
  9. Profit Margins: Expanding (not contracting)
  10. Debt/Equity: < 0.5 (strong balance sheet)

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What I Learned

  1. More filters ≠ better. Over-optimization kills performance.
  2. Exits matter more than entries.
  3. Moving averages lag. Late entries = missed gains.
  4. Finding the right stock >> perfect timing.
  5. Buy & hold is hard to beat on strong trends.
  6. The edge is finding emerging leaders early, not timing obvious ones.

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What the screener does well

  • Quick screening
  • Identifies Stage 2 trends
  • Early exit warnings
  • Keeps you out of declining stocks

What it doesn't do

  • Catch the earliest entries

  • Beat buy & hold on mega-caps

  • Work in choppy markets

  • Replace fundamental research

Bottom Line of all of this?

Based on all these information and the stocks i tested on so far, swing trading isn't beating buy and hold. The key here seems to be that it's more crucial to find "yet to be discovered" superperformers and then enter just when they are breaking out into stage 2. I know what I said may be sounding like an idiot and that I just went one whole round to realise what was already said in the books. But this is definitely making me second guess whether if it's better to go back to DCA-ing in index funds or try day trading instead.

Happy to share the code if anyone wants to take a deeper look at it and provide feedback. Thanks guys.

Posted Dec 1, 2025, 3:59 AM UTC

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