Market opened dumpy today, I was going to post a warning about this yesterday but i was busy, the reason is because we had a whole week of green in the stock market and also the holiday week was a low volume week with mostly retail buying the dip as institutional investors went to the hamptons. 

But as for BTC i think most likely we will still see sideways action for a while. There is some danger of another dump down butI think the probability in the short term is sideways then up.

1st pic is daily BTC, The smaller green circle is showing the neckline bounce from head and shoulders perfectly in play, The top green circle is the bull market support band starting to shift down, I think this will probably head to 100 in a couple of weeks and thats where BTC will end up later. The bottom green circle is the next big support if im wrong at 72.  

2nd pic is BTC two week. Past cycle you can see the support on the band, we re in that trend right now so thats why i also think we re heading sideways. Also the RSI is most likely going to reset here like before, bottom green circles. 3rd pic is weekly, Theres one danger of another breakdown here as the green cloud area was broken last cycle before the bounce, right now we re right on the border.  But also RSI here says a reset is coming. 

4th pic is BTC one month liquidity, had a lot of liquidity build under last few days and MM took it out.   But top is getting very built up now.  5th pic is 3 month, Looking at that 82k seems likely before the move up. 6th pic is monthly on a different chart, This one also points build up of upwards but 82kish is likely. 7th pic is SPY and NAS, you can see we opened down today

BTC summary, Long term trend is still bearish. Lower lows, lower highs. But oversold short term indicators are high. Of course something can even more oversold but I think in the short term the TA is still favouring short term sideways before the move up. 

But I admit theres a couple things warning about this. First is the stock market, extremely hard to predict. A lot of signs say its topped out right now.  But there could be a triple top like BTC and one more pump. 2nd is DXY, 8th pic. Dollar even though is dipping last week is on a uptrend and if the 100 breaks its going to rip up. 

9th pic is MSTR, another warning. MSTR’s still underperforming a lot. BTC is underperforming the stock market but MSTR is even worse which is a leading indicator. I was expecting it to turn around short term but so far ive been wrong.

I still think sideways is more likely but i admit theres dangers for another dump. And its never fun going against the trend.  I am still betting BTC will get back to at least 98k in the next month. It would suck if it breaks to 72 first.  

Also apparently today the ceo of MSTR admitted he would have to sell BTC if they cant hold up their financial obligations, which is not a surprise.  Not sure why people are surprised about this. 





BTC update