Job Hunt: take the 3rd, or go for 1st?

I know it's silly to be asking reddit, but just wanna make sure I'm making a reasonable decision, and not a 100% wrong decision.

• I've been self-employed for about a year, but it's time to call it quits.
• Been looking for a job since 11/7, done 6 interviews, finished 2 round 2s (got one offer (3rd pick), other one waiting for a response (2nd pick)), waiting to do another round 2 (1st pick)
• I have 3 days to respond to the 3rd pick offer, ill probably get an offer from the 2nd that'll expire next week.
• 1st pick is flying me out for the interview but due to their availability, thats scheduled out 2 weeks, at which point the 2 offers will have expired. -financially....it's getting tight (no debt currently, but getting to that territory), but I could take routes I dont want to to get by for a few more months.

Of course I should go for 1st, especially since I do think I have a decent chance (hoping being flown out is a good sign in and of itself), but Im also fearing just not getting it, not having any backups left (expired offers), and then end up having to settle for like, a 4th or below choice in a month or something.

is this a "bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush" type situation? or shoot for the stars?