Expected Winners and Losers for Top Lane changes?

Theorycrafters gather around, it’s time to guess who will gain and lose the most from an extra combat summoner. Or who will benefit from the extra levels and split push changes.

My guesses are (and this is for low to mid MMR):

Losers:

• champs that fold to ignite pressure Mundo, Illaoi, Warwick, Darius, Olaf, Volibear, Tryndamere
• tanks without kill pressure Ornn, Poppy

Winners:

• tanks with kill pressure Shen, Tahm Kench
• bruisers that match the top lane bar Horsewomen, Renekton, Jax, Sett, etc.
• Strong splitpushers with decent laning phase Yorick

Unclear

• typically weak laning phase champs Nasus, Kayle
• lane bullies Quinn, Jayce
• champs that sometimes take TP, sometimes don’t Akali, Gwen
• champs that don’t need TP but aren’t countered by ignite Garen, Kled

Some of these champs belong in multiple categories so it’s hard to guess without numbers, but that’s what makes early theorycrafting so exciting! And of course skill bracket matters. I’m prepared to be raked over the coals for my guesses, but let’s hear your thoughts!