DISCLAIMER: - I'm not an expert and neither am I suggesting any investment option in my post. This is my personal news-based analysis I am only sharing it in hopes of getting constructive feedback and becoming more knowledgeable over time. Any "prediction" like statement is meant to just indicate the probable market direction and that too only at the start of session.

Previous post link: [Thursday (04-Dec-25) Market performance summary and outlook for Friday : r/IndianStockMarket](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStockMarket/comments/1pe9l1p/thursday_04dec25_market_performance_summary_and/)

Summary of Last Session (Friday, December 5, 2025)

The week ended on a Bullish Note, fueled by a decisive policy shift from the central bank.

• Closing Value: NIFTY 50 closed at 26,185.45, up by +151.70 points (+0.58%)
• The Game Changer: The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised the market with a 25 bps Repo Rate Cut (to 5.25%), citing controlled inflation and strong growth. This was the first rate cut in the current cycle, triggering a wave of buying
• Sectoral Moves:
  • Leaders: Rate-Sensitive Sectors surged. Nifty Bank, Auto (M&M, Eicher Motors), and Financial Services (Bajaj Twins, Shriram Finance) led the rally
  • Laggards: IT and Export-oriented sectors saw some profit-booking as the Rupee strengthened slightly post-policy
• Intraday Action: After a flat start, the index spiked vertically at 10:00 AM on the policy announcement, consolidated mid-day, and closed near the day's high, indicating strong momentum.

Outlook for Monday, December 8, 2025

The outlook for Monday is Strongly Bullish, with a high probability of a Gap-Up Opening that could challenge the all-time highs.

1. Implied Opening: Significant Gap-Up

• GIFT Nifty Cue: The latest data indicates GIFT Nifty is trading around 26,332
• Implied Start: Comparing this to the NIFTY 50 closing of 26,185.45, the data implies a Gap-Up of ~145-150 points
• Expected Opening Range: 26,330 – 26,350

2. Key Global Factor: US Data & Fed Expectations

• US Market Close (Friday): Wall Street closed near all-time highs (Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%), reacting positively to inflation data
• The "PCE" Trigger: The US Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) was released on Friday and came in at 2.8% (In-Line). It did not show any nasty surprises
• The "Missing" NFP Report: The US Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls), originally scheduled for Friday, was delayed to Dec 16 due to administrative reasons (government appropriations lapse)
• Impact: The in-line inflation data has solidified the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates at its meeting next week (Dec 10). This creates a "synchronized" rate cut narrative (RBI cut + expected Fed cut), which is highly bullish for emerging markets like India

3. Technical Levels to Watch

Trading Strategy: "Buy the Breakout"

• At Open: If Nifty opens above 26,325, it confirms a fresh breakout into unchartered territory

  • Action: Wait for the first 15-minute candle. If it holds above 26,300, the trend is up

• Dip Buying: If there is initial profit-booking filling the gap towards 26,250, it is a high-probability buying zone

• Sector Watch: Banks and Real Estate will likely continue their outperformance due to the rate cut tailwind.

Sources:

• Stock Market close: Sensex jumps 447 pts, Nifty at 26,186 as investors cheer RBI rate cut | Markets News - Business Standard