The other playoff scenario: JMU is left out

First off, I know the rules - the 5 highest conference champions make the CFP. I also know the rules are made up by the committee.

The current incentive for a team that makes the playoff is a $4M payout to that institution. That would be a minimum amount I’m sure JMU / the SBC would see in legal damages if they are left out. Which, while not chump change, to an organization like ESPN it is fairly negligible given what’s at stake.

The alternatives are:

1. leaving Alabama, the SEC’s golden child, out of the playoff. Sankey would lose his shit and has the leverage to make much larger downstream impacts to not only the playoff structure, which ESPN has direct financial interests, but also the SEC’s connections in general to the network.

2. leaving Miami out is leaving out the ACC as a whole. Yes the tie breakers were stupid, and undoubtedly will get fixed next year, but the ACC is also a conference with 3 nattys in the last 15 years and is also financially tied to the ESPN ecosystem. Pissing them off can yield to future contract disputes across all sports coverage and financially impact ESPN far greater than the meager $4M payout to JMU.

3. leaving ND out is like missing a chance to hook up with that one crush from high school who always spurned your advances. Shooters shoot, and ESPN isn’t fumbling the chance at getting exclusive coverage of ND football when they are otherwise contractually excluded.

All this to say, I don’t necessarily THINK this scenario will play out and the committee will follow its own guidelines. I do however absolutely believe this will be an item of discussion for members of both the board of directors and the selection committee and it will be just a matter on if it collects enough steam.

I’m sure there are other risks in going down this path besides a lawsuit from JMU, like the SBC seeks exclusive rights with Fox or Peacock or something, but I’m not sure how that gets weighed vs the risks outlined above. The most prevalent would be damages to reputation with all of the G5, but honestly ESPN has such a stranglehold on their broadcasting that it may just consider itself above or immune to any potential retaliatory act.