Remember when Bessent said a housing emergency may be declared?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/

I think the government shutdown messed with the timing but now I think we have two catalysts that will make a declaration soon be smart from the White House:

1. Road to Housing Act - somehow a bipartisan bill from Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren. It passed the senate and is attached to the NDAA. Now the house needs to decide if it’s going to add it on their end. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/03/ndaa-delays-defense-bill-00676098

https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-statement-on-the-road-to-housing-act-and-ndaa-negotiations

Road to Housing is huge and if it passes alone makes my trade good. Ask AI to explain it to you and what it does for housing stocks

2. FOMC meeting. With 2.5 days to go until a decision it would be dumb to introduce anything that could be construed as inflationary towards home prices. 

If the rate cut hits and Road to Housing passes, things are a lot easier for the executive to do their whole declare stuff that may or may not stick thing. I don’t fully think materials tariffs will be lowered but Bessent did talk about it.

Now, there’s a wrinkle here. We don’t have enough construction workers. 

https://www.agc.org/news/2025/08/28/construction-workforce-shortages-are-leading-cause-project-delays-immigration-enforcement-affects

So from my POV we have two solutions:

1. Lift the cap on H2B workers - which may be done temporarily via executive order, particularly if a housing emergency is declared.

2. Road to Housing act incentivizes localities to relax zoning for manufactured houses. 

I think Road To Housing is the key element here. It provides a ton of benefits to manufactured housing, small houses, and cheaper housing. It couldn’t move forward without the government reopening. The government is open and we may get our rate cut. It passed the senate, and the White House wants the house to add it. 

I think this ends up being a path of political survival now that it’s clear affordability is what will be driving voters at midterms.

Stocks I bought (see screenshots):

Builders and materials: 
ITB QXO DHI LGIH

Manufactured:
CVCO SKY UMH ELS

More People Buying and Moving:
RKT Z COMP

I think materials and most builders aren’t ideal for this because the workers shortage is a real bottleneck. Manufactured could be huge here, but DHI and LGIH sell a lot of starter homes. 

The RKT Z COMP stocks do best if rates fall and if the portable mortgages, 40/50 yr mortgage ideas get put in action. If Hassett replaces JP we’ll probably get the lower rates.

Unrelated to all the policy and rate specific stuff, Cathie Wood oddly referenced housing as a good trade 2 days ago:

https://youtu.be/S0FHyju1iRs?si=V6OMSC7-SB5mIdfA

I deleted my last DD on this because it was too heavy on materials and didn’t have the manufactured homes builders. I still want to get this up so I can feel good about having told everyone before it all goes off.

Not financial advice.

DD: Housing May Be the 2026 Trade