What's my chances of getting an avoidant ex/bff back?

Hey there, first time posting up here and am really troubled with my love for my ex (who also used to be my best friend). We've known each other for 12+ years now & I've loved him for 10.

We used to be the bestest of friends and went into a romantic relationship after being friends for 5 years.

The relationship was rocky during our early 20s with a lot of typical anxious-avoidant dynamics going on. And we finally broke up after and he left because he can't stand how tiring the chase was. Shortly after our breakup he had a new gf, and their relationship basically went through the same dynamics and lasted another 2 years (no contact with me during his new relationship).

We got back in contact after their break up. More like catching up as friends and we do hangout 1-1 together. Its just, we never talked about topics related to romantic relationships (he's obviously avoiding it), but we can talk for hours about other stuff. I can see he's quite ok with some skinship, but then stiffens when I come in for a hug.

He won't call or text (he's doing it to everyone, including family), but when we hang out its 100% engagement from his side. Deep talks, eye contact, light banter, thoughtful restaurants etc.

What's my chances of reconnecting with him meaningfully (because now its just on and off), and does he see me more as a friend? Thanks!