Gaza Fatality Analysis: The Truth Behind the 70,000 Number
Gaza’s fatality figures have become the most scrutinized and reported casualty numbers of any war this century. As with all conflicts, the true toll is inherently uncertain, and no dataset or analysis can escape those limitations. This analysis accepts that uncertainty. Still, based on all available data and evidence, it offers what I believe to be the most reasonable and grounded estimate of Gaza’s fatalities to date.
Introduction
As of December 4, 2025, the Hamas-run Ministry of Health (MoH) reports that 70,125 people have been killed in Gaza since 10/7. Over the past two years, the MoH has released twelve official lists of named fatalities, most recently on August 4. The MoH has removed obvious errors such as duplicates or false IDs, yet the core problems remain: no identification of combatants, no cause, place, or date of death for anyone, and no effort to distinguish natural deaths, infant mortality, IDF-caused deaths, or those caused by Hamas.
This analysis is based on a comprehensive review of all Hamas-published fatality lists and every major study and investigative report on Gaza casualties. The Hamas lists provide a curated reality at best, where careful omissions, inclusions and structural manipulation hide the genuine character of Gaza’s war-related casualties. Hamas has a long record of manipulating casualty data, chiefly by consistently minimizing the number of combatants killed and presenting nearly all deaths as civilian. (Contrary to some claims, Israel does not treat Hamas’s casualty figures as accurate.) The methodology applied here cuts through that distortion to produce a more reliable estimate. The chart below summarizes the findings of this latest assessment:
Table 1: Estimated Gaza Casualties by Attribution (10/7/2023 – 12/4/2025)
Unpacking Hamas's Headline Number
Hamas’s headline figure of 70,125 deaths is presented as if every one were a war fatality caused by the IDF. Yet two years into the conflict, it is beyond doubt that natural deaths are embedded in this total, even though the precise number cannot be known. Pre-10/7 data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) show that Gaza records on average about 6,000 natural deaths and 800 infant deaths annually. For the first eighteen months after 10/7, Hamas insisted that every name on its lists represented a war casualty. Only in April 2025 did it quietly acknowledge otherwise. After removing a set of names from the lists, Zaher al-Wahidi of Hamas’s Ministry of Health admitted to Sky News that “a lot of people… died a natural death.”
Despite this acknowledgment, Hamas has never produced a separate list of natural deaths. If such a list existed, Hamas would have every incentive to publish it, since doing so would raise the headline fatality total and bolster the narrative that all deaths on their public list were war-related. The simplest explanation for its continued absence, even months into the ceasefire, is that no such list exists because these deaths were never separated out in the first place.
There is ample evidence that non-war deaths are included. Documented cases include fatalities from accidents and illnesses, many confirmed through detailed social-media investigations. A mortality survey conducted in July 2025 by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported that only 75% of fatalities were due to war injuries. Although the survey sample was not representative of all of Gaza, the large number of natural deaths is evident. The logical conclusion is clear: Hamas has inflated its fatality list by sweeping in virtually every death in Gaza and assigning it to Israel. For this analysis, I estimate that roughly 11,000 natural deaths are embedded in Hamas’ lists after 26 months, lower than the statistical expectation of 13,000–14,000, reflecting that some deaths likely never appeared on any list and that Hamas apparently removed a small subset in 2025.
It is difficult to separate natural deaths from the Hamas fatality lists because Gaza’s pre-war mortality pattern is highly unusual. According to the PCBS, natural deaths pre-war were split evenly between people under 65 and those 65 and older. This reflects Gaza’s extremely young population, which produces a natural death rate of just 2.9 per 1,000, remarkably ranked 225th lowest of 229 nations and territories. Of the estimated natural deaths during the war, at least half would therefore be among those under age 65 or infant-mortality related. Hamas’s latest fatality count further suggests the inclusion of older-age natural deaths: individuals 65+ comprise 7.1% of reported fatalities, 2.4x their share of Gaza’s population, which is only 3% according to the PCBS.
Another estimated 1,000 deaths can reasonably be attributed to errors and anomalies. The Hamas list still shows people killed in previous wars, individuals misidentified, and cancer patients who left Gaza but were subsequently listed as dead. While most obvious mistakes appear to have been corrected, a margin of error of 1–2% remains likely, and because Hamas refuses to provide cause, place, or verification of death, these errors remain hidden.
After removing natural deaths and anomalies, we are left with 58,125 estimated war-related deaths since 10/7.
Internal Killings by Hamas, Gangs & Rockets
Not every wartime death in Gaza is attributable to Israel, a point supported by extensive documentation. A significant share stems from Hamas’ own violence and the collapse of internal order, including executions of alleged collaborators and looters, deadly clashes around aid convoys, friendly-fire, and misfired rockets falling inside Gaza. Estimates suggest that 10%-20% of the 10,000+ rockets launched since 10/7 misfired, many likely landing in populated areas.
Hamas killed 12 GHF aid workers in June 2025, and many deaths of aid seekers blamed on Israel were later shown to have been caused by Hamas. Hamas killed 20 members of a rival gang in November 2024 and another 50 in June 2025, among many documented examples. Independent observers have documented dozens of such incidents by Hamas and its Al-Sahm unit (see here and here). Even after the ceasefire, numerous deaths added to Hamas’s fatality total were caused by internal violence, such as 32 rival gang members reported killed on October 13.
Taken together, these strands of evidence support an estimate of 4,000 Gazans killed by Hamas or other internal actors. This figure is rougher than others in the analysis, but it reflects a consistent pattern beginning early in the war when rocket fire was most intense and later shifting to escalating internal violence. These deaths are war related but not attributable to Israel and must be separated from any honest accounting of IDF fatalities. Subtracting them from the adjusted total leaves roughly 54,125 remaining war deaths.
Adding Back Missing Combatant Deaths
The IDF indicates that about 25,000 Hamas fighters have been killed since the war began, a figure recently affirmed by President Trump. This includes those killed during the 10/7 attacks inside Israel, 20,000 killed inside Gaza through early 2025, and several thousand more since. Judged against the visible collapse of Hamas’s military capabilities and the need to recruit 15,000 new fighters, this IDF estimate is credible. It represents about half of Hamas and PIJ's pre-war combined force and about 38% of their total fighting force when accounting for new recruits and affiliated groups.
The demographic breakdown from Hamas’s fatality count reinforces this assessment. The latest data show a striking 3:1 ratio of combat-age men to combat-age women among the dead: 32,690 men aged 18–59 compared to 10,621 women. That is more than 22,000 excess fighting-age males, with another roughly 2,000 excess teenage males, a cohort Hamas has increasingly relied upon for recruits. This pattern is consistent with targeted killing of combatants by the IDF, not indiscriminate civilian harm.
Not every fighting-age male death is a combatant, but when the demographic evidence is reconciled with the IDF’s estimate of 25,000 fighters killed, the most reasonable conclusion is that thousands of combatant deaths never appeared on Hamas’s lists at all. An estimate of 7,000 missing combatants killed reflects this reconciliation, implying that only about 18,000 combatants are acknowledged on the official MoH lists. Hamas’s withholding of fighter deaths is well documented.
Claims that the IDF has only killed 8,900 combatants, and therefore 83% of those killed in Gaza are civilian, are demonstrably false. The figure reflects only those identified by first and last name and matched to pre-war lists of known Hamas and PIJ operatives. It cannot account for fighters not identified in real-time combat, newly recruited fighters, or militants unknown to intelligence before the war. The notion that combatants killed by the IDF do not count unless their full names are known and matched to a pre-verified roster is absurd. No modern military is held to such a standard.
Adding back 7,000 unlisted fatalities, plus 4,000 killed by Hamas, yields an estimated 65,125 Gaza war deaths, excluding natural deaths. This roughly resembles Hamas’ “70,000” headline but with a radically different internal composition.
Debunking Claims of 100,000 Killed in Gaza
There has been a steady stream of flawed statistical studies claiming that Gaza’s death toll is around 100,000, but this "undercounted fatality" narrative collapses once basic reporting realities in Gaza are understood. For two years, Gazans have been able to report deaths without a body, submitting them by phone, Google form (replaced by the current online form), or through local authorities. Families have strong incentives to do so because compensation is tied to notification. The head of Hamas’ MoH acknowledged that some deaths were reported to obtain benefits. Charities have provided support to orphans and widows, and Palestinian media describe widows filing paperwork with Gazan authorities to obtain allowances tied to their deceased husband's salary. These incentives are compounded by continual MoH appeals urging families to report "martyrs and missing persons"—no body necessary.
Source:
https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/7167
The MoH’s own website (see page 6) lists 17,466 deaths registered through “family notification” and 13,019 verified by a judicial committee, underscoring the widespread reporting by family members. In November 2025, Palestinian media published the names of six Hamas operatives found with the body of hostage Hadar Goldin in Rafah. Five had already been reported "dead" by families despite no body or evidence, with two reported as early as June 2024. An analysis of the 1,968 fatalities added from the ceasefire through November 11 shows that 61% were not from recovered bodies but from the processing of previously submitted family reports. It is indisputable that large numbers of deaths with unrecovered bodies are already inside the 70,000 total.
Even now the MoH provides an online form that allows families to submit deaths without a body, with a burial-status option labeled “under the rubble.” The idea that tens of thousands more civilian deaths or missing persons somehow went unreported or are simply awaiting discovery, despite the ease of reporting and the financial incentive to do so, is implausible. None of the “excess mortality” studies mention, let alone address, this fundamental methodological flaw.
Conclusion
This analysis points to a grounded estimate of 61,125 war-related deaths due to IDF action: approximately 25,000 combatants and 36,125 civilians (plus the 4,000 deaths caused by Hamas and internal actors). Civilian casualties are tragic, and the large number of minors killed cannot be dismissed; however, they overwhelmingly result from Hamas’s human-shield strategy, in which military assets are deliberately embedded where civilians are present, and in which civilian deaths are viewed by Hamas leadership as beneficial to its aims.
A civilian-to-combatant ratio of 1.45 to 1 is remarkably low by the standards of modern urban warfare in Iraq or Afghanistan, and it demonstrates that the IDF conducted a highly targeted campaign against Hamas under extraordinarily difficult conditions. Claims that large numbers of civilian deaths remain unreported do not withstand scrutiny: families had over two years to report fatalities, even without a body, and numerous “rubble” deaths are already known to have been added through the MoH’s notification process.
The evidence shows that Hamas’s headline fatality toll is a distortion. The true picture is of a war in which Israel inflicted massive losses on Hamas’ fighters while carrying out one of the most targeted urban campaigns in modern military history.
Posted Dec 9, 2025, 9:39 AM UTC