r/Idaho4•
Repulsive-Dot553

Statistical chance of 2 "unknown male" profiles on back of sheath area with blood

GENERAL DISCUSSION

As someone recently posted that there are 2 "unknown male" DNA profiles on the back of the sheath area which has blood mixture from KG and MM, I thought it interesting to do a quick calculation of the probability of there being 2 viable DNA male profiles there, together with the actual profiles from MM and KG, using the published profile data for Item 1.4 (back of sheath area with blood spots).

The probability is 9.5 x 10**^(78)** to 1 against.

That is 9.5 Quinvigintillion to 1 against. (Yes, a new statistical term for me also. Let it never be said Probergers do not teach us anything).

Or written out, that is: 95,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 : 1 against.

Just to be fair to the proponent of this theory, if we just use the 20 CODIS core loci as basis for calculation (not the 22 used and published by ISP forensics), the probability is much more likely. It is then:

19 Quattuorvigintillion to 1 against. (another new statistical term for me), or 1.9 x 10^(76). Written out, that is:

190,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 : 1 against.

This is slightly more unlikely than your DNA being found on a sheath you never bought, which posted itself to your address via your own gift card and Amazon account, after your car with your phone in it drove itself to the scene, circled 4 times and then sped off, while you were sleeping. But not that much more unlikely.

Posted Dec 9, 2025, 10:00 AM UTC

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