Bitcoin Looks Strong, but Interest Is Dropping.

I’ve spent the last few weeks digging into Bitcoin’s performance, the macro trends behind the big moves, and a ton of alternative data that shows how public interest is changing. Here’s what I found.

1. Bitcoin’s last two years were wild.
We went from the post-FTX depression to new highs above $126k, then back down into the mid-$80k range. Even with the big pullback, the long term move is still incredibly strong.

2. The rally was mostly driven by three (maybe four) things:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States finally going live
• The 2024 halving and the predictable scarcity narrative
• Expectations for lower interest rates and a friendlier macro backdrop
• The new US administration is, in lack of a better word, more crypto-friendly than the former administration

3. The hedge debate is more complicated than people make it.
After digging into studies and price behavior, my takeaway is this:
Bitcoin can hedge long term debasement because of its fixed supply, but it does not behave like a short term hedge against the dollar. Money supply has been rising lately, but bitcoin hasn't followed. When markets de-risk, Bitcoin usually sells off in the same direction as tech stocks. Bitcoin might still protect you from a long term weak dollar, but not from short term risk-off / volatility.

4. The alternative data surprised me. Interest is cooling.
This is the part I didn’t expect to be so obvious:

• Google searches for “Bitcoin” are down nearly 50 percent YoY
• r/Bitcoin subreddit growth has slowed to just 1 percent in the last 3 months
• Bitcoin’s Wikipedia views dropped from ~10k per day to ~4k
• Sentiment across crypto forums is turning bearish

It feels like excitement has cooled even though the price is still up massively over two years.

5. What I’m watching next:
• ETF inflows or outflows
• The Fed’s approach to rates
• Whether search interest and community momentum pick back up
• Any regulatory shifts, especially since the Trump administration has historically been more pro-crypto

My personal take:
Bitcoin still makes sense as a long term asset with a fixed supply and global adoption. But in the short run it behaves like a high beta macro trade, not a clean hedge. The data shows retail attention is fading, which might mean we are in the middle of a cooling phase rather than a new explosive rally.

Curious to hear what others think. Does this align with your view, or are you seeing something different?