G'day uranium fiends,

Some of you may recall my original UEC Bear Case post

Update:

UEC recently provided their 10-Q ending 31st October reporting a total of 68,612lbs, including both uranium in resin and drummed lbs.

Under the Physical Uranium Program section they note a total production inventory of: 157,318lbs of uranium in resin & 41,260lbs dummed. In the quarter ending 31st July they reported 103,545lbs uranium in resin & 26,621lbs drummed; this means their actual drummed production during the quarter was 14,839lbs, -44% QoQ.

As per my previous post UEC had not reported any uranium in concentrate value growth in their inventory prior to the first announcement of actual production figures in September 2025.

UEC reported that they restarted Christensen Ranch in August 2024. Following 12-months of production, including 1/3 of the recent quarter production (1 Aug - 31 Oct) gives them a 12-month production figure from ramp up of 31,367lbs of drummed, packaged ready to sell uranium.

Compared to their ISR restart peers, assuming Peninsula hit their CY2025 guidance, UEC will be the worst performing company for drummed cake in a can 12-months from production commencement:

https://preview.redd.it/phlkv8p1kj6g1.png?width=1680&format=png&auto=webp&s=14e023cc83cb35d7348b03de30d2b5d292924177

For a $6.2B company this is atrocious performance. Post this 10-Q announcement UEC was -7.45% and remains -1.78% after hours.

Is the reality of trying to restart a dud US asset from the past cycle starting to hit home for UEC? All of their peers have gone through, or are currently going through, some form of restart turmoil.

u/cali_white_male put it well on my original post "it’s fundamentally a bad long term pick, but the incredible volume and options chains flows make this a great short term scalping / swinging stock."

UEC will try to convince the market this is an intentional conservative ramp-up due to the poor performance of the uranium price this year. As a shareholder, or prospective shareholder, that narrative is up to you to judge.

UEC has remained 100% unhedged, completely exposed to both the upside and downside of the spot market. Is this strategy intentional due to perceived benefit, or tactful due to known risk with their portfolio of past cycle junk and not wanting to get themselves into the same over-contracted state of URG (forced to buy in the spot market and sell at a loss). Or maybe it's an intentional move to keep up the pre-revenue grift:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo&t=6s

For anyone interested, the old discord has been given CPR: https://discord.gg/ZaH7Ut4sGX