Latest observation

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Last updated: Sunday, 28 December — 2:00 AM Australia Western Standard Time (AWST; 18:00 UTC)

Observed information

• Current position: 17.1°S 138.5°E
• Forward movement: E (110°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
• Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
• Minimum central pressure: 998 millibars (29.47 inches) ▼

Relative position

• 37 kilometers (23 miles) northeast of Nicholson, Queensland (Australia)
• 49 kilometers (30 miles) southwest of Gangalidda, Queensland (Australia)
• 125 kilometers (78 miles) east-northeast of Calvert, Northern Territory (Australia)

Disturbance outlook

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Agency discussions

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

BOM is not currently tracking this system on its forecast outlook.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

JTWC is not currently tracking this system on its forecast outlook.

Development potential

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Within the next 2 days (before 7AM Mon): very low (near 0 percent)
• Within the next 7 days (before 7AM Fri): very low (near 0 percent)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Within the next 2 days (before 7AM Mon): very low (near 0 percent)
• Within the next 7 days (before 7AM Fri): very low (near 0 percent)

Florida State University

NOTE: These figures are based on output from the GEM, ECMWF, NAVGEM, and UKMET models.

• Within the next 2 days (before 7AM Mon): high (86 percent) ▲
• Within the next 7 days (before 7AM Fri): high (86 percent) ▲

Official information

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Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Tropical cyclone information
• Tropical cyclone seven-day forecast

Other information

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Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

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Bureau of Meteorology

• Nationwide radar mosaic

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Visible:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Infrared:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Water vapor:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

• Visible:   CIRA/RAMMB
• Infrared:   CIRA/RAMMB
• Water vapor:   CIRA/RAMMB

Analysis products

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Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

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Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

• Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multi-guidance pages

• NCAR
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx · Weather Nerds

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx · Weather Nerds

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University