Source
r/TropicalWeather•
Euronotus

99P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near Samoa)

▲ Disturbance (50% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1004 mbar

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 28 December — 1:00 AM Samoa Standard Time (SST; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 13.4°S 170.1°W
  • Forward movement: E (90°) at 13 km/h (7 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 117 kilometers (73 miles) north-northeast of Pago Pago, Maoputasi (American Samoa)
  • 122 kilometers (76 miles) north-northeast of Nuʻuuli, Ituau (American Samoa)
  • 187 kilometers (116 miles) east-northeast of Apia, Samoa

Outlook discussion

Fiji Meteorological Service

FMS has not issued a tropical disturbance summary for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Sunday, 28 December — 7:00 PM SST (06:00 UTC)

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

  • Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of turning obscured by spotty flaring convection.
  • A [recent scatterometer] image shows overall broad rotation with 15 to 20-knot associated surface winds.
  • Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and moderate divergence aloft.
  • Ensembles and deterministic models agree that Invest 99P will continue to develop as it tracks eastward over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Development potential

Fiji Meteorological Service

  • Within the next 2 days (before 7PM Tue): very low (near 0 percent)
  • Within the next 7 days (before 7PM Sat): very low (near 0 percent)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

  • Within the next 2 days (before 7PM Tue): low (30 percent)
  • Within the next 7 days (before 7PM Sat): medium (50 percent) ▲

Florida State University

NOTE: These figures are based on output from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAVGEM models.

  • Within the next 2 days (before 7PM Tue): low (13 percent) ▼
  • Within the next 7 days (before 7PM Sat): low (30 percent) ▼

Official information

Fiji Meteorological Service

Other information

National Weather Service (United States)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

  • Visible:   CIRA/RAAMB (not currently available)
  • Infrared:   CIRA/RAAMB (not currently available)
  • Water vapor:   CIRA/RAAMB (not currently available)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

Posted Dec 28, 2025, 4:57 PM UTC

60
Loading comments…