Winter semester

How likely is it to get off the waitlist for a winter class if you're in position #1 on the waitlist? Also how likely is it that I will get approved to credit overload for 6 credits for the winter semester? I'm currently enrolled in 3 credits for the winter but this 2nd class would bring me up to 6 credits. But the 2nd class is asynchronous and not writing intensive - does that factor?