I Built AutoMerchant – A Transparent Shopify Pricing AI with Bayesian Learning (As a Middle Schooler)

How it works (current version):
- Bayesian elasticity learning – Updates price sensitivity per product from real sales
- Regret budgeting – Limits losses to ~$100/product while learning
- EVI (Expected Value of Information) – Only experiments when worth the risk
- Probabilistic inventory modeling – Avoids stockouts or dead stock

Claude handled the heavy math from research papers; ChatGPT was my "is this dumb?" checker. I also used Claude's agentic coding tool (Claude Code) to help with coding!

Our edge (why this is different than the other ones):

Most pricing tools are either black boxes ("trust our AI!") or dump 50 recommendations with no context. AutoMerchant shows you the full reasoning—why it thinks you should change the price, what assumptions it's making, how confident it is. You approve each change manually. No auto-apply nonsense that tanks your revenue overnight.

Also, it's just simple. No dashboards with 47 metrics. You see products, recommendations, and explanations. That's it. The algorithm learns from YOUR store's data, not some generic model trained on millions of other stores that don't sell what you sell.

Tech stack (standalone app):
- Backend: Node.js/Express (Vercel serverless)
- Database: Supabase PostgreSQL
- Frontend: React + Tailwind CSS (with some Polaris UI components)
- User Auth: Supabase Auth (Google OAuth sign-in)
- Shopify Integration: Shopify OAuth (connects user's store after signup)
- Hosting: Vercel (frontend + backend)

Average results on my personal store and my beta user's store (2 months):
- Margins +8%
- Fewer stockouts
- Made $157 from accepting the price recommendations.

Explanations look like:
"Increase to $24.99. Tight inventory (8 days supply), strong velocity (12/week), elasticity estimates 15% price hike drops volume only 8%. Confidence: HIGH"

Limitations (honest):
- No competitor data
- No bundle awareness
- No seasonality yet
- Needs some price variation to learn

Landing page: https://automerchant.vercel.app

If you're running a Shopify store and want to try it or give feedback, or just a dev who's interested, DM me—happy to onboard or give you a tour personally.

Curious what you think of the approach, or any advice for a middle schooler building SaaS? Thanks! 🚀