How likely is admission if I don’t score an interview?

I’ve applied to 15 physics/astro programs with 1-2 more to go. I know my number isn’t that high for this specific cycle, but I’m holding out hope for now. I know this all varies by school and by program, but I’m not sure of what common practice is. How common is it to admit or waitlist people that weren’t interviewed? If I’m admitted as a second or third choice or taken off the waitlist (the likely case if I’m successful), would I still be interviewed? In other words, if I’m not interviewed, is it safe to assume I’m out of the running?

I’m already looking for jobs and post-baccs, but it’ll definitely be helpful to gauge whether or not I still have a chance of admissions if my inbox remains empty around February-March. I have several schools I’m also looking at for spring admission (yes I know that’s less common, I denoted every school that offers it on my spreadsheet), and if a lack of interviews hasn’t taken me out of the running, I’ll definitely hold off on spending that money and re-curating my CV, starting on essays, etc. for a bit. Otherwise, if my prospects are bad, I want to start early.

Any advice is appreciated!