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Can the PLA force Taiwan into submission with a blockade?

Ideas/Debate

So in this scenario Taiwan would be blockaded and of course bombed continuously from the air. No food, no energy, no nothing going in. Obviously Taiwan is far from self-sufficient.

The US will obviously do something about the blockade but China would respond accordingly like shooting at said ships. However, the US is also thousands of miles away and with satellite technology everyone will know ahead of time if they are planning to break the blockade with their navy. Neither side would be willing to risk all-out war over Taiwan.

China would have complete air superiority over Taiwan within the first day. This isn't even a question. Unless the US sends their planes and start fighting the Chinese (which again probably won't happen) safe to say that Taiwan can't do much other than fire some missiles at Xiamen and other things just like how Iran responded to Israel in their 12-day war.

Kinmen and Matsu would likely be ignored mostly other than have everything that can be a threat to the Chinese mainland completely wiped out. In other words, goodbye to their military installations.

Generally a pure blockade and bombing without a ground invasion has not provided results in the past as the defenders would not surrender just like that. This comes along with the fact that just above 10% of the population in Taiwan supports reunification which is miniscule. But honestly considering how Taiwan has just about nothing and international response being unpredictable what would likely happen? How will Japan come into play?

Bit too lazy to provide sources directly here but I will in the comments.

Posted Jan 14, 2026, 3:06 AM UTC

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