The Silver DOOM-LOOP and Future Path of Price Action for 2026
Remember the *RUNNING WEDGE* I posted insistently last year, this was actually the MIRCO chart pattern which was a subset of a larger 30 YR SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE, which was also part of a larger 90 YEAR RUNNING WEDGE, all Converging at the same time? I did state the move out of this pattern would be nothing short of explosive but of course there are the naysayers who put in a timer to wake-me up when it hits $50。 Well, are you awake or still asleep at the wheel bud, as we are fast approaching triple digits。
The chart is posted below as a reminder only to illustrate TA / Chart Pattern Recognition does work, even if the market is heavily manipulated as Silver, but I digress, back to the point of this post。 We have completed 5th year deficit near 1 BILLION ounces is why all the above ground stockpiles are near depleted across LBMA, Comex and SGE and where UBS is estimating 300 MIL ounce deficit for 2026(will see how this correlates to the Silver Institutes projections, but in any case, the deficit will only continue to worsen。 What scraps remain the US Treasury is locking down for US strategic reserves, which only needs a few billion ounces of AG to its quite bare vaulted coffers。
SGE silver price is pushing $100(w/o ,andthe China Government implemented the new Export Restrictions of Silver as of January 1st, keeping in mind that China is the largest silver refiner of the world accountable for about 70% of refined supply which may be restricted from leaving Asia under the new guidelines governed by the Chinese Ministry。 However, with premiums trading 10%+in SGE as this exchange is also under duress and short metal, this is a magnet pulling silver from Europe and NA to Asia and will continue to do so to capitalize on the arbitrage delta。 Now, even without the new Chinese Export Restrictions, who would export silver to London or New York if China is souring silver $10 over Western prices unless still legally obligated from pre-existing contracts?
This "as we are witnessing real time right now", is putting extreme stress on LBMA and Comex, which is also triggering *backwardation* which thereby inhibits Western Refiners from taking new silver supply to refine as their hedging practices to null risk is compromised which also aggravates the short of "good delivery bars" to LBMA / Comex", creating a shortage doom loop, only we may also couple this with both Industrial Users and Hedge Funds from the EAST approaching Mining CEO's directly to pay $8 to $10 over spot circumvents main source of supply to the Future Exchanges. Why would a miner go on the exchange and hedge at $90(selling future ounces, locking in $90 / oz OR hedge by selling that same future demand to India for a $10 premium over spot). This would also reduce selling pressure on both LBMA and Comex。 At some point the "ASK" will be pulled and nobody will be selling anything in the Futures Exchange, that is when we see LOCK LIMIT up in COMEX。
Demand appears to be feverish, frenzied, insatiable but we are not there yet。 When the LCS shops start to close and online dealers have NO inventory and not taking any orders, and we see a metal run a mile long, then FOMO may have kicked in. Everybody I know is pacing and looking for that big "DIP", just one more dip, or maybe one more crash and I will load up the truck。 Those corrections are a day of the past now, we are in a BULL market, behavior of which we have not seen since the 1970's.
The market provided plenty of time to accumulate at ridiculous low prices for years, well that was then and this is now。 Moving forward what to expect? What I'm reading from the charts is we are in the verge of breaking into triple digits, maybe this week, and pending how hard GOLD runs could tag $125 to $135 before any meaningful correction is back on the table, but this again will be short - lived as after this next pull - back of substance, the big MEGA bull leg will commence and that will make this rally look like a speed bump。 Lastly, did TD bank bail on their short position stop @ $92 or are they going to triple down and add some more naked shorts to their SUNK position @ $78?
Posted Jan 14, 2026, 3:09 AM UTC