Seeking advice: how to approach REE stocks without chasing the run

Hey everyone,

I’m beating myself up a bit for not catching this bull run earlier. I was late to the last lithium bull run, and seeing how many of these charts already look extended makes me nervous about ending up a bag holder again.

That said, I know this cycle is fundamentally different from lithium. Processing and refinement outside China seems like the real choke point, which is what pulled me into this space.

Things are moving fast, so I’m using this weekend to do the best DD I can before opening positions. I’m largely following u/nickman23’s thesis and focusing on US or allied companies involved in processing and refinement, not just mining.

I originally leaned toward uranium processing and enrichment, but lately I’m feeling that REEs may be the more urgent strategic bottleneck for the US, especially when it comes to magnets and defense applications.

My main issue is portfolio discipline. I have about 5 to 6 names I genuinely like, but realistically I know I’m not going to track news, earnings, and policy developments for that many companies closely. I’ve looked at SETM as a simpler option, but it doesn’t really give me the exposure I’m looking for.

What I’m hoping for from this sub:

-Thoughts on my top picks and which ones you personally believe in and why

-Any pushback on my thesis if you think I’m missing something

-How people think this run plays out from here

Current top picks

UUUU (Energy Fuels)

~$6B market cap

-Only operating uranium mill in the US. Uranium mining plus REE separation optionality.

MP (MP Materials)

~$12.3B market cap

-Only REE mine in the US. Strong government backing. Pushing downstream into processing and magnets.

LEU (Centrus Energy)

~$5.4B market cap

-US-based uranium enrichment and HALEU. Recently received a DOE award. Clear policy tailwinds.

UURAF (Ucore Rare Metals)

~$757M market cap

-Canada-based REE refinement using proprietary separation tech. Targeting commercial operations around mid-2026. Higher risk, higher potential leverage.

LYSDY (Lynas Rare Earths)

~$11.9B market cap

-One of the largest REE refiners outside China. More established. Feels like the safer, lower-volatility play.

SETM ETF

-Lowest risk option, but broader exposure than I want and less focus on processing choke points.

Appreciate any insight, especially from people who’ve been following this space longer than I have. I’m trying to balance not chasing momentum with not missing a structurally important shift. Thank you!