Decided to look at how "surprising" some of the surprise nominations were by looking at how many predicted them on Awards Expert. These predictions are based on the January 21 stats, so a day before nominations. Not doing every surprise, just the ones that had a 25% or less prediction rate.

Also not doing the shorts because they're notoriously hard to predict (the Top 5 for Favorites Live-Action Short all blanked out, and Animated Short only got Butterfly)

The Voice of Hind Rajab - Best International Feature: 25%, below No Other Choice (79%)

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) - Best Supporting Actress: 21%, below Odessa A'zion (57%) and Ariana Grande (39%)

F1 - Best Picture: 13%, below It Was Just An Accident (77%)

Bugonia - Best Original Score: 13%, below Marty Supreme (68%) and F1 (27%)

The Secret Agent - Best Casting: 13%, below Sentimental Value (82%), Frankenstein (21%), and Weapons (14%)

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) - Best Actress: 12%, below Chase Infiniti (82%)

Sentimental Value - Best Editing: 12%, below Hamnet (80%)

The Ugly Stepsister - Best Make-Up: 11%, below Wicked: for Good (96%), One Battle After Another (72%), and Marty Supreme (17%)

Come See Me in the Good Light - Best Documentary: 7%, below 2000 Meters to Andriivka (97%), Cover-Up (53%), Seeds (37%), My Undesirable Friends (33%), and Apocalypse in the Tropics (31%)

One Battle After Another - Best Production: 9%, below Wicked: for Good (92%), and Avatar: Fire and Ash (12%)

Cutting Through Rocks - Best Documentary: 6%, below Come See Me in the Good Light

Blue Moon - Best Original Screenplay: 6%, below The Secret Agent (48%), Sorry Baby (38%), and Weapons (20%)

Kokuho - Best Make-Up: 6%, below The Ugly Stepsister

Delroy Lindo (Sinners) - Best Supporting Actor: 5%, below Paul Mescal (93%)

Jurassic World: Rebirth - Best Visual Effects: 2%, second to the last place in predictions; only beating The Electric State's 0%

Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi!) - Best Original Song: 0%, literally last place for Best Original Song predictions

Avatar: Fire and Ash - Best Costume Design: 0%, in 25th; below Mother Mary - a film that was delayed to next year