how much does the zeitgeist matter in regard to a best pic nominee and its performance in the oscars?

i just rewatched one battle after another (2025). as a longtime pta fan, it’s really exhilarating, chaotic in the best way as well as feeling quite timely (current political state in the 🇺🇸). obviously the film’s been in the works considerably long before this administration and ICE being a problematic organization isn’t ‘new’. but there’s this ‘boiling point’ kinda feel that’s risen to the top in recent weeks that simultaneously isn’t hard to miss in the film.

i’m wondering, is it within the realm of possibility that the film wins best pic mostly because of this? i’m wondering how much that matters, to help its chances. also, what would you say makes it deserve best picture, in general?