Hey guys,

  
Here is my first article on Dragonsbargain  - more will come on the website and other medias soon; I did do a DCF. All the numbers are on the website. Let me know what you think. 

* Stock is still heavily discounted, but valuation still looks like a good opportunity vs long-term FCF
* Street expectations feel conservative on margins
* Ads + AI efficiency remain the core drivers, not metaverse hype

**Bull case**

* The last Quarter fried the algos with the accounting charge, the business is still doing well
* AI spend already showing ROI through efficiency gains
* FCF trajectory supports higher long-term valuation than current price

**Bear case**

* Any ad slowdown gets punished at this valuation
* Heavy AI capex, especially if the strategy isn't fully fledged out tomorrow. 
* Regulatory overhang / including banning for teens may hit the stock short term

I also compared my **DCF-based price target vs current price** and stacked it against analyst targets to see where expectations really sit.

I keep the full breakdown + live price target tracking here (free, no paywall):  


[https://dragonsbargain.com/articles-pre-earnings-q4-2025-meta/](https://dragonsbargain.com/articles-pre-earnings-q4-2025-meta/)

Happy to hear counter-arguments — especially from anyone bearish going into earnings.

Not financial advice - do your own research - Just sharing my thoughts 

Articles - Pre-earnings Q4 2025 my $Meta​ PT for 2026 is 1150

Articles - Pre-earnings Q4 2025 my $Meta PT for 2026 is 1150