Miami (OH) is not getting an at-large bid
According to my machine learning model, here are the mid majors with a greater than 0% chance of getting an at-large. South Florida is light years ahead of Miami (OH), even though they have 7 losses, 2 of them quad 3. But, South Florida played a tough noncon, played Alabama tough, and has quad 1 wins against Utah State and Tulsa, plus a quad 2 win against UAB. It's as my grandpa said, "it's who you play! records don't mean sh**!"
| team | prob | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Gonzaga | 100% |
| 1 | Utah State | 70.4% |
| 2 | Saint Louis | 60.1% |
| 3 | New Mexico | 54.4% |
| 4 | San Diego State | 52.8% |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 43.5% |
| 6 | Saint Mary's (CA) | 41.3% |
| 7 | Boise State | 32.2% |
| 8 | Virginia Commonwealth | 29% |
| 9 | Grand Canyon | 25.9% |
| 10 | Nevada | 25.9% |
| 11 | South Florida | 17.9% |
| 12 | George Mason | 15.6% |
| 13 | Tulsa | 14.8% |
| 14 | Akron | 1.2% |
| 15 | Miami (OH) | 1.2% |
| 16 | Stephen F. Austin | <1% |
Posted Jan 30, 2026, 5:04 AM UTC
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