Is Figma actually in trouble? Are they gonna sell to Adobe?

Man, did you see Figma’s ride lately? One minute their stock pops from $33 up to a crazy $143 peak, and now they’re back down near $30. In fact, Motley Fool notes Figma’s stock closed around $37 on Jan 9, basically its IPO price, after a 75% nosedive from that high. Now Figma’s market cap is only about $18 billion, basically where that old $20 b Adobe deal valued them, even though that deal got scuttled by regulators.

A big factor seems to be AI. Everyone and their mother is tacking AI onto design tools now. Figma itself is scrambling to throw AI into the mix. They’ve launched things like Figma Make and Figma Buzz to stay fresh, but those ain’t printing cash yet. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out awesome new features too. Figma’s being offset by intensifying competition and slowing revenue growth, and that costly AI builds are eating into margins. Basically, the edge Figma once had is narrowing fast. Investors expected a monster growth story, but the reality is still just solid SaaS growth, not magical.

So what’s next? Lots of people are asking the big question of whether Figma will get swallowed by Adobe or not. I mean, it’s been a meme ever since Adobe’s $20B acquisition fell apart. Adobe still lurks around, and if Figma keeps stalling and regulators magically lighten up (ha), anything’s possible. After all, Figma’s current cap ($18B) is basically what Adobe was willing to pay. But let’s be real: Adobe couldn’t get it done last time and I’m skeptical they can snap them up soon.

My two cents are that Figma’s in a rough patch but not totally toast. They raised a ton of cash and they still have a ton of fans. They could try to reinvent themselves and focus on new AI-driven features or widen beyond just designers. Could they rally? Sure, but it won’t be easy. At this point, selling to Adobe looks like one possible exit, not a sure thing. I don’t see a take-private tomorrow or anything, but if Figma flatlines and growth stalls, the board might get itchy.

So what do you think? Is Figma doomed to become Adobe’s little sibling, or do they pull a rabbit out of the hat? I’m curious to hear your takes.