Built a 10-year machine learning model for horse racing - fully walk-forward tested, now publishing daily probabilities for free

I’ve been building a personal project around a question I’ve never seen answered convincingly:

Can machine learning find something real in horse racing , something that survives beyond a backtest and doesn’t fall apart once it’s exposed to live markets?

Horse racing is brutally efficient. Anything obvious gets priced in. Anything that looks too clean in a spreadsheet usually turns fragile once variance, liquidity and timing are taken seriously. I’ve always been sceptical of big claims built on tidy charts and cherry-picked examples.

This project exists because of that scepticism, I couldnt trust anyone else's analysis.

The core of it is a ranking-based supervised machine learning system trained on 10 years of UK & Irish racing data. Runner-level, race-level, engineered features, not a filter system, not trends and not “AI picks”. Just structured probability modelling.

Everything is walk-forward tested year by year. No random splits. No future leakage. Each season is evaluated only on data that existed before it. If it doesn’t survive that, it doesn’t get considered.

The current live iteration is what I call V11. It’s not “the answer”. It’s simply the latest version that met a high enough bar to justify being observed in the open. Im currently testing the next model, which incorporates more than 1300 features per runner and hoping to start working this model into my reports soon.

Right now my model produces live racecard probabilities daily. Nothing is being sold. Nothing is guaranteed. The point is to see how the model behaves when the future is genuinely unknown, ive been sharing these reports for about a month now and getting alot of great feedback and yes the reports have genuinely produced quite remarkable winners.

I publish the full daily outputs publicly, not just wins, not just highlights, because if a model can’t survive transparency it’s probably noise.

Happy to discuss how the report is currently being used, execution strategies, staking etc

Best of luck

FREE REPORT 12th Feb