Ja'Kobi Lane Dolittle Score (New WR Model)

# New WR Model
Hello, everybody! It’s my favorite time of the year when it comes to dynasty fantasy football: the off-season. During the next few months, I’ll be developing a model for trying to identify the wide receivers in the 2026 draft class that have the best chance of providing dynasty value. There are plenty of models that exist that seek to tell you how good a prospect is using data, film, or perhaps some combination of both. I’ll not only be using such a combination in my model, but I’ll also seek to do two things:

 

 

>**1. Increase the relevance and quality of the data inputs**

 

>**2. Add context pertinent to dynasty fantasy football.**

 

The second point is going to be the most difficult—subjective data can be difficult to quantify into an objective number to input into a formula—but that is what my goal is with this model. I’ll be considering the more traditional prospecting data in addition (but not limited) to target competition on their NFL team, quarterback quality and preferences, offensive ecosystem, and scheme fit.

 

 

Since the entirety of that last set of data won’t be determined until after the NFL draft, I will begin by trying with the first point. Two popular and predictive metrics that are often cited with wide receiver prospects are **Dominator** (how many combined receiving yards and touchdowns a player accounted for among their teammates), and **Breakout Age** (the age at which a player’s **Dominator** crossed a certain threshold).

 

# Why Alter the Model?
In the NIL era we have seen a steadily increasing efficiency in the consolidation of talent among competent programs. Before the NIL era there were a small number of blue bloods that hoarded all the blue-chip talents, and the few that fell through the cracks were stuck on their mediocre programs because of the harsh penalty of transferring unable to outweigh benefits. During this era, the simple dominator metric made sense to use because the top teams provided too small of a sample size to limit evaluating players with, so you might as well just treat every schedule with similar weight.

 

 

 In 2021 a one-time immediate eligibility transfer was permitted, and by 2024, there were no longer restrictions on transfer eligibility. Combined with NIL money further incentivizing player movement, we have seen the blue bloods brought to a more even playing field and a lot more parity between the top and middle classes of college football. There does still exist some “have-nots” that have been stubborn or unable to participate in the NIL era and have thusly suffered by having their talent raided any time a player begins to develop.

 

# How to Alter the Model
I seek to improve **Dominator** by only considering games played against top 80 competition by **SRS (Simple Rating System)**. **SRS** boils down average point differential and strength of schedule into a single number and ranks each team by that number. The top 80 were chosen to simultaneously include some of the better G5 (and independent) schools while excluding the P4 schools that have languished in the NIL era. For the 2025 season, this list excludes 8 P4 schools and includes 21 non-P4 schools. I would have liked to tighten this number slightly, but I found that extending the cutoff to 80 is still fair from a competition standpoint while also giving me enough data points for some receivers that had weaker schedules.

 

# Dolittle Score
In the end, the new version of **Dominator** that I’ve landed on is currently called **C.A.wD.R. (Competition-Adjusted weighted Dominator Rating)**. I’m certainly open to suggestions for a better name, haha. Or maybe we can just call this stat a player’s **Bird Doctor** score? **Dolittle** score? Someone help me here lol.

 

 

I went through 22 different draft-eligible WRs for the 2026 draft class and I’ll share my results with everyone while I wait for more data to be available to me to add to my final model. In the meantime, I hope that sharing my results with you all can help everyone to have constructive discussions about different prospects. Additionally, I would love to receive feedback from the community as I develop this model—I’m open to any and all suggestions and would love to make this model as accurate as possible moving forward.

 

 

>**TLDR: I’m creating a model to holistically evaluate WR prospects from a dynasty fantasy football lens, and would love to generate both productive discourse and feedback!**

 

 

# **Ja’Kobi Lane**

Now that I’ve prefaced with the premise, let’s dive into the **Dolittle** score for the WR that scored 22/22 in my analysis: **Ja’Kobi Lane**.

 

I’d firstly like to remind any **Lane** fans out there, the **Dolittle** score is only one input into the model, and I’m by no means ruling him out as a fantasy asset as a result of this initial analysis.

 

In 2025 **Ja’kobi Lane** played 8 games against top 80 competition. In those games played, he accounted for:

 

-          5 receptions per game (not pertinent to the model, but I tracked it for additional context)

 

-          506 yards (out of a total of 2,522)

 

-          3 touchdowns (out of a total of 16)

 

His final **Dolittle** score is 19.798%. This is the only mark that falls below the 20% threshold that is usually attributed to a “breakout” year. Surprisingly, he does qualify for a breakout with his season in 2024, barely eclipsing the threshold on the strength of his high TD mark. The season-to-season variance of scoring TDs hurt him in 2025 and despite improving his yards and receptions per game in his final season, he does find himself at the bottom of the **Dolittle** score rankings.

 

It’s important to note that his teammate **Makai Lemon** has been a limiting factor in **Lane**’s production in 2025, but it should come as no surprise to anybody that **Lemon**’s production metrics are better across the board when it comes to facing stiff competition.

 

# Thank You!
I hope you all enjoyed this initial write up! I am excited to go on this journey with you all and would love any feedback or thoughts. If there are any questions for clarification about my process, feel free to ask as well! Thank you all for reading.