Need help with job offer comparison

Background:

Current role is $153k with 20% bonus.

I’m 4 days in the office and 1 day remote. I have to commute 1 hour into downtown office each way and pay $175/mo to park.

The job is easy, but no room for growth. They have been reducing heads for several years now and I am somehow still here. I assume they will eventually lay off all but a handful of people and move them into another group. So I do not feel there is much job security and I would need to find another internal role if I wanted to avoid layoffs.

New role:

$146k with 15% bonus. The job is remote currently, but they expect to have an office in my area within a year. And at that point I will be asked to do 4 days in office.

This new offer has expanded scope, so I could broaden my skillset and gain new experience. it is also managing others, which I am not doing in my current role. I will likely go from 30 hours of actual work a week to 45+ leading this team.

All of the health benefits, 401k match and other benefits are substantially similar. The new role has fewer paid holidays but makes up for it in paid vacation time, so it’s a wash.

Help me decide:

I need help deciding on whether full-time remote is worth the pay cut, ~16k if you include bonus differential.

The difference in salary will probably net out since I won’t be spending as much. By taking the remote role, I expect to save $7.4k:

- $2.1k on parking

- $2.3k on gas

- $3k on eating out

The only time i will notice the difference in pay is around bonus time, and those are never guaranteed anyways.