Hot take, but is anyone starting to think Marth is actually the 4th best character?

I have a theory that Marth is able to make such deep bracket runs because he’s good against spacies and Puff, who are common/big gatekeepers. Marth seems like to me that he has a weird matchup spread, that’s like the reverse of Sheik, where he beats the top characters but loses to random mid tiers. This hasn’t been much of a problem since most people play top tiers, but lately we’ve been seeing a renaissance of mid tiers.

Just take a look at this. You may agree with some of my matchup opinions, but let’s use it as a starting point.

Fox, loses to: Marth only, may be even. Can get blown up by random mid tier’s punish games like DK, Pika, or Samus, but Samus is nearly extinct. However, he is fine against Luigi.

Puff: loses to Fox and Marth only, and Fox is still close to even these days. I think Puff may have the best matchup spread in the game, as she is basically high, mid, and low tier proof. Falcon can beat her, but I’d say that’s evenish. Puff is also brutal for Sheik, for what it’s worth. While HBox maybe trying hard again, and SDJ is amazing, I still believe, maybe wrongfully, that the char. Still has room to grow. I think even to this day people say HBox doesn’t implement all Puff stuff.

Falco: hard to tell. Loses to Marth, loses to Fox or goes even, and loses to Sheik. Loses to Puff probably. Falco can also get blown up by random mid tiers. Yet, I don’t think I’ve seen Falcos lose to DK, Pika, or Luigi in a long time. Need falco data experts on this one. Mang0 makes Falco-Fox look even. People say it’s just Mango, but in theory people could ascend to his level since the playbook is there. Despite me saying that though, Falcos have been struggling to get results.

Marth: loses to Sheik, Pikachu, and Yoshi. Normally not a problem, especially cuz Sheiks often lose to Fox, Puff, or ICs, whereas Marth likes those and ICs is alright. This a great matchup spread for the current meta cuz aMSa is rare, as is Pika. So Marth gets far and deep because spacies are so popular. But if all characters were played equally, I’d expect him to buster out at weird times.

I think there might be something to Marth struggling with Luigi here. Not only has RapM taken 3 sets, but he loses to worse players who play Falcon. That suggests to me there is a matchup problem potentially, otherwise RapM would’ve beaten Salt or at least come much closer. I know this sounds weird cuz I know Luigis complain about Marth, but I think it’s time to re-evaluate this. Sometimes new players maximize a character’s tools better.

Sheik: Sheik is probably solidly the fifth best. She is the reverse of Marth, with Plup like 25-2ing aMSa, DK getting destroyed, and well. I’ve never heard of Sheik struggling with Pika. However, the problem is that despite Sheik being good against Marth and Falco, the controller power creep has made her third worst matchup now her second worst, and Fox is super common. If it weren’t for her ICs issue and Fox being repeatedly shadow buffed, Sheik’s matchup spread wouldn’t be too dissimilar from Falco.

There also now 2 Puffs in the top 10, and 3 relevant ICs IIRC. Sheik’s ICs matchup is so bad, some of her deep runs are partially just due to bracket luck. Jmook and Krudo are cracked, but they also didn’t have to worry about Nicki, MOF, or Slug. No other top tier needs to dodge matchups this bad. Thus, Sheik should be at #5 imo despite being more high and mid tier proof than Marth.

So with all that said and done, I’d probably order the top 5 like this, assuming all characters are equally played in a tourney, and are equally skilled.

1. Fox

2. Puff

3. Falco

4. Marth

5. Sheik

In real life meta:

1. Fox (best matchup spread + controller buffs)

2. Marth (thank you for playing spacies and pivots for existing)

3. Puff (her two worst matchups are everywhere)

4. Sheik

5. Falco

I’m having a hard time guessing 4 and 5, because despite Falco not losing as hard to certain characters, it seems Sheiks have been usually outplacing Falcos, and even Mang0 struggles to win. I wonder how many wins Mang0, magi, and ginger have post covid versus Jmook and Krudo.

I don’t know man, these are bleak times for the bird. Falco has the tools, but his speed, jump squat, improved sdi, poor reward on grab, and more common power shields and evolved laser counterplay have made his life hell. It seems Sheik mostly just has to dodge ICs, tech chase Fox well, and either beat Puff or let a Fox or Marth do it. That seems easier to me than Falco having to fight Fox, Marth, Sheik, and Puff, who are all difficult to various degrees for him, especially Sheik and Marth these days.

So, those are my thoughts. If all characters were represented equally in tourneys with equal skill, do you think Marth would still be #2? Or would his weird mid tier matchups bring him down in your eyes?

I also just wanted to say I don’t track stats well and I’m not a Melee genius or top player, so these are just my vibe-based thoughts while waiting for Genesis X3. What do you think? I expect some disagreement, which could be fun to discuss.