Iowa WBB Big Ten and NCAA Top 4 Update

It has only been 4 days since my last Big Ten update, but we've had some notable developments:

UCLA (15-0): the conference champion.

Michigan (13-2): finish at Iowa, at Ohio State, vs. Maryland. The Wolverines feel like the 2nd best team in the conference at this point, but it's still far from certain that they will actually finish second. Iowa and Ohio State both have a chance to change things at home.

Iowa (11-3): finish at Purdue, vs. Michigan, vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin. Neither road game is a slam dunk, but it's nice to have two easier games on paper after the gauntlet of the last month. Iowa is fortunate the Illinois game is at home.

Ohio State (11-3): finish at Minnesota, vs. USC, vs. Michigan, at Michigan State. Other than Iowa beating Nebraska, Ohio State losing to Maryland was easily the biggest result for Iowa's Top 4 hopes. Iowa has the tiebreaker, and frankly it's hard to see the Buckeyes not losing once or twice more.

Minnesota (11-4): finish vs. Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, at Illinois. The Gophers just keep on winning. They could lose any of the remaining games, but a 3-0 or 2-1 finish seems most likely.

If Iowa finishes 4-0, they will be the 2 seed in the BTT.

If Iowa finishes 3-1, they will finish no worse than the 4th seed. One of Ohio State or Minnesota have to lose at least once more, so a 3-1 finish is enough to secure top 4. It could be enough to finish as the 3 seed depending on other results.

If Iowa finishes 2-2 it gets dicey. Ohio State could lose twice more but it's not guaranteed. Minnesota probably won't lose twice more.

NCAA Tournament Top 16 Reveal

On Saturday, the NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed its top 16 seeds in the Tournament if the selection occurred that day. More analysis on that below:

1 seeds: 1) UConn, 2) UCLA, 3) South Carolina, 4) Vanderbilt

I'll skip over these teams for now. I don't think Iowa could earn a 1 seed even if it wins out.

2 seeds: 5) Texas, 6) Michigan, 7) Louisville, 8) LSU

To earn a 2 seed, Iowa would likely need to finish 4-0 in the regular season, then make the Big Ten Tournament final. That's not impossible, but also not particularly likely.

9) Ohio State- Lost vs. Maryland since the reveal on Saturday. As the above schedule shows, there's a good chance the Buckeyes will lose once or twice more in the regular season. Iowa could easily jump them.

10) Duke- beat ranked North Carolina after the reveal. They're undefeated since early December. Part of that is the ACC isn't particularly good apart from Louisville and Duke. Iowa probably has to beat Michigan to jump them.

11) Iowa- won at Nebraska today.

12) TCU- beat ranked West Virginia after the reveal. Also have winnable games at home against Iowa State and Baylor to end the year that could boost their resume.

13) Maryland- won at Ohio State after the reveal. The only other big regular season game they have left is at Michigan, so not sure they have a ton left to add to their resume. As long as they win the games they should, though, they'll likely lock up a top 4 seed.

14) Michigan State- Got blown out by Michigan since the reveal. Have lost 4 of their last 5. Finish at Minnesota and vs. Ohio State. Maybe they could jump Iowa if they win both of those, but I'm not certain even then and I don't think winning both is particularly likely.

15) Ole Miss- got blown out at Kentucky after the reveal. Also have games vs. LSU and at South Carolina left. Unless they pull an upset in one of those games, I doubt they finish as a top 4 seed.

16) Oklahoma- Won at Alabama since the reveal. Have a couple big games left at Georgia and vs. Tennessee.

ESPN's Bracketology had Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, and North Carolina as 5 seeds after the reveal. Kentucky had a big win since, but Tennessee, West Virginia, and North Carolina all lost.

My big takeaway from this exercise is that it would be very hard for Iowa to fall out of a Top 4 seed. Michigan State and Ole Miss both seem unlikely to pass Iowa unless they pull of major upsets. Teams outside the committee's top 16 also largely haven't helped themselves apart from Kentucky.