In light of the recent controversy over electronic transmission, we are missing the forest for the trees. I honestly struggle to see how electronic transmission fixes the problem when the voting process itself remains manual—it’s a digital solution to an analog problem. But even if we had a fully electronic system, it wouldn't solve the fundamental rot of Nigerian democracy.

We often blame our failures on tribalism, polarization, or a lack of transparency. But the decay starts long before a single ballot is cast: it begins with the total collapse of party discipline.

The root of this dysfunction is the indirect primary system, which reduces party ideology to a cash-and-carry transaction. The barrier to entry isn't just the cost of the nomination form; it is the exorbitant cost of the 'delegate market' that follows. Securing a ticket becomes a bidding war—often involving hundreds of thousands of dollars—to purchase the loyalty of a decentralized network of governors, oligarchs, and traditional rulers.

Because this system is built on transactions rather than shared values, it is inherently unstable. When the 'highest bidder' wins—often by violating internal gentleman’s agreements like zoning—the party fractures. This disunity creates a permission structure for consequence-free 'cross-carpeting.' Politicians trade horses and switch sides to preserve their interests, knowing they won’t lose their seats because the party itself stands for nothing. The result is a political class beholden only to the highest bidder, not the manifesto or the people.

This leaves ambitious politicians with only one option: if they cannot outbid the machine, they must create their own vehicle. Currently, they co-opt smaller parties with inorganic support, turning them into personal fiefdoms. But this is an imperfect solution.

This brings us to the largely ignored chapter of what the 10th Assembly has kept on the burner: Independent Candidacy. This reform is potentially more consequential than the 'Not Too Young To Run' Act. It is a constitutional game-changer that allows a popular candidate to bypass the 'delegate market' entirely. If a politician has organic support, they shouldn't need to buy a party franchise to run.

While it may be too late for a real movement in this cycle, the seeds are being sown. If the APC secures victory in 2027 (which seems likely), the resulting political settling period may ironically set the stage for 2031 to be the freest, fairest, and most competitive election in our history—driven not by parties, but by individuals. The incumbent party has nothing to lose and it’s usually tradition to ramp up electoral reforms at the end of the second term. 

When Nigerias look to the past about the freest elections, it was under an open direct primary system. The election of Abiola was off the hand of an open primaries. The mechanism of it means that the candidate has a base line of organic support nationally, which removes any chances of any dubious and unpopular hand picked candidate running in the first place it becomes too big to rig.

But in light of the fact that there would be direct primaries soon and independent candidates what then happens to zoning? It’s has been popularized that it’s up to the political parties to decide which zone but if Nigerians decide to go against this without the influence of the political class, 2031 may bring us one of the largest set of quality candidates from all regions, imagine some of the best former governors putting their hat in the ring. Zoning in my opinion has been one of the worst aspects of Nigerias democracy. It implicitly accepts the spoils system as a given and denies parties meritocracy. 

What these changes make to the average Nigerian is hope that you don’t need to know a guy to have an election. Many young Nigerians who wants to have power have to play the dirty game but the rise of candidates like Peter Obi(someone without the political clout yet was able to use social media hype( I don’t like his populism and I think his overhyped but that’s not the conversation) to translate it to the polls). Imagine an LCDA in Abuja or a LGA in Lagos who did an organic campaign for local government chairmanship. We can then see how they started and how much impact did they make. It could be a Mandani moment.

Heartbreaking: The Worst Institution in Nigeria *May* Just Have Accidentally Saved Nigeria’s ‘Democracy’.

Heartbreaking: The Worst Institution in Nigeria May Just Have Accidentally Saved Nigeria’s ‘Democracy’.