CMPS 97% Dilution ? – Looking for Community Input

After the Phase 3 readout and the new financing, I’m trying to understand the real dilution risk for CMPS.

Please feel free to corret me if needed. im trying to understand and adapt what was untill today a "hold strategy"

1) New Public Offering

• $150M base + $22.5M overallotment = $172.5M max
• If priced around $7/share: → $172.5M / $7 ≈ 24.6M shares

2) ATM Program (Remaining Capacity)

• Remaining ATM: ~$150M
• At ~$7/share: → $150M / $7 ≈ 21.4M shares

3) Outstanding Warrants

• Jan 2025 warrants @ $5.80: ~35.1M shares
• PIPE warrants @ $9.93: ~12.3M shares
• Total warrants: ~47.4M shares

4) Total Potential New Shares (Worst Case)

• Offering: ~24.6M
• ATM: ~21.4M
• Warrants: ~47.4M

= ~93.4M new shares

5) Dilution Math

• Current: ~96M shares
• New (worst case): ~93M shares

→ ~93 / 96 ≈ 97% dilution

will this happen for sure ? are all the possible wrrants typically exercised ? what about potential + catalyst like fda meeting news, ptsd ect ..

im sitting on 50% profit and wondering if holding is still the good strategy. I read some comments related to this so i thought i would make this post to have a conversation dedicated to it as some of you seem quite knowleagbale on the matter.

thank you and sorry if there are errors in the above data