Yesterday, we discussed the Gap Up and low-volume activity on Nifty's chart, trying to explain the reasons behind the sudden spikes in Nifty. Along with that, yesterday and today, we shared charts discussing the breakdown of RSI's ascending channel, with confirmation of this breakdown received at 10:15.  
  
Volume Analysis  
  
In the morning update we shared, there's a strong supply zone in the Nifty 25,860 to 25,870 range, and Nifty could test the 25,650 level. However, I personally didn't execute the trade because volumes were quite low. In the second update, we shared that upon reaching Nifty 25,570, we'd see selling pressure intensify along with volume.  
  
The second round of selling that came from 25,570 was a volume-supported move, and since Nifty's average volume here increased 5X, I had confidence that Nifty could test the 25,450 level.  
  
Options Data  
  
Options data is quite interesting—a big player has aggressively bought PEs on the 25,200 strike price side and seems confident in their position. On the CE side, there was speculative naked buying for many days, leading to huge losses here, as most of these positions were created by retail traders, and they've incurred significant losses today, with premiums unlikely to recover. There's still quite a bit of premium left in ATM and ITM options, which institutional players will need to "eat" by bringing the market down to 25,150 levels, since these options are trading at premiums higher than their real intrinsic value.  
  
Futures Data  
  
In futures data, most positions built by institutional players are positional in nature, and today, many futures positions were rolled over to next month's futures contract. The OI in futures has changed positively, indicating aggressive fresh shorts.  
  
Conclusion  
  
The 25,530 to 25,550 range in Nifty has now become a very strong barrier—reclaiming this level will be quite difficult for Nifty. The fresh PE buying at 25,200 PE options indicates a potential test of the 25,200 level. Data changes quite rapidly during live market hours; if any real-time changes happen, we'll share live updates on the [Dicey Trade](https://t.me/diceytrade) channel.  
  
Position Disclosure  
  
The short positions I disclosed in the last analysis—26,000, 26,100, 26,200, and 26,300—were closed today in the trading session since they were monthly strikes. The April futures contract short, with an average price of 26,140, is still held as it was created for arbitrage trading opportunities, and I'll hold it on a positional basis.  
  
Trollers, haters, and those biased due to BTST/STBT positions—please completely ignore this analysis.  
  
Disclaimer  
  
This analysis was done after market close and could be 100% wrong. It does not promote any type of buying activity.

Nifty 50 Derivatives Analysis & Market Insights For Friday (20-Feb-26)