Coloradomander seems to be almost a dummymander past 2026 data
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d7443d7e-8194-44e4-9f59-1d8b1660c379
So let's see the gerrymandered districts:
CO-3: D+7 (2020), D+5 (2024)
Jeff Hurd is building up a reputation as a moderate and has opposed Trump on many occasions, including tariffs and medicare cuts.
We will see how well he does in 2024.
He is a newbie, but seems to be representing kind of the "opposite" of Boebert in every way inside the GOP.
Dems aren't trying too hard, but still- if he overperforms by >=5%, I would consider this race more likely to hold in 2028 than not.
Rating: Tossup-Lean D
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CO-5: D+8 (2020), D+7 (2024)
I'm going to make a bold prediction and say Jeff Crank is more likely to hold than not except in a Blue Wave year.
Yep.
Jeff Crank overperformed as a non-incumbent by 5% in 2024.
The same year, the CO GOP flipped a House district that was Harris +6.
The GOP downballot overperformance in South Denver/Colorado Springs is... really high.
D+7 with incumbency is perfectly viable.
Rating: Tilt GOP
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CO-8: D+13.5 (2020), D+9 (2024)
Gabe Evans is not likely to hold in 2026. But even if he does, D+9 is probably too much to overcome. Even accounting for trends, he would be at around ~D+7, which is probably too high unless something spectacular happens.
But the trend here is horrific. It was the worst-trending district even in 2016-2020 data.
Rating: Likely D
(unless it somehow shifts right in 2024-2026 data and Evans holds)
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But the bigger problem here is that all of them are very working-class and areas the GOP is doing better in in CO (except arguably CO-5, which is more stagnant.)
Minority trends will probably reverse in 2026, but minority (and especially non-college ed minority) losses have been getting worse and worse over time.
2024 was particularly bad for Dems, but even just a continuation of the 2016-2020 trend with minority non-college eds would be pretty bad for Dems on this map.
East/North Denver and Pueblo are very Hispanic and working-class.
And the gerrymander relies on those areas holding for Dems and not zooming to the right. (Colorado college-ed Whites shifted left, but most of those areas (like West Denver) are actually in Dem incumbent areas, not in the areas being gerrymandered with R incumbents.
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I would be worried about a possible dummymander if someone like Rubio or Haley wins the GOP nomination and 2028 isn't a shitshow for the GOP.
If it is a shitshow for the GOP and they revert (eg.) to 2020 minority margins... I don't think they even need the gerrymander; they will have the House by a wide margin anyways.
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The baffling thing is that all this is just to protect incumbents.
One of the Dem incumbent districts is D*+50* (!)
It's almost trivial to make a better map that is far safer for Dems without dummymandering:
Posted Feb 19, 2026, 9:55 PM UTC