Nightly awards

I haven’t had a lot of luck with these. I’m just curious if you ask for a nightly upgrade, but only choose one of the 6 options for an upgrade, do you end up worse off than if you had just hoped for a status based upgrade if the upgrade doesn’t clear? I’m just wondering if they are like, we aren’t giving him a suite for the upgrade award, now I don’t even want to give him anything nicer than he booked type logic. Just curious what people think the game theory is here, or actual practice if any Marriott people care to respond. Thanks