When did you know that you could now start working on your first game

Some context for this question: Im a 19 yr old whos been programming since I was 14 but only got into game dev a couple of months ago. Built a couple of small projects, some in a course, rest on my own. Ik I am far away from being an experienced game dev and would probably take a couple of years of experimenting and creating to get there but I like to have some sort of tangible goal or timeline in mind. Much like every aspiring game developer I have an idea for a game but its scale is too big for someone of my level to handle right now.

My question is when did you go from working on your small projects and learning to actually making your first big project. At what point, do you go now I can probably start making my first commercial game. Ik it's different for everyone but I just wanna hear other people's experience on it.