If the events of Dark Age chapter 31 did not happen?

Rereading dark age. As a thought experiment what do you all think would have happened If Mustang had managed to prevent the day of the red doves?

I imagine with dancers public support full mobilization would be possible. They’d have the rail gun on earth and big fleets with the Vox going along since dancer ordered it.

With Atlantia having taken heavy losses fighting for Mercury she’d be hard pressed though her fleet would be intact. I do wonder if with Darrows particle cannons assisting from the ground and the Republic navy attacking that could have been it.

Still Atlantia would have better fleet commanders as the republic wouldn’t have Orion or Darrow in orbit.

I’d like to think if no day of the red doves Atlantias fleet even if it wins would be mauled. The republic would most likely be able to rebuild faster as Atlantia wouldn’t be able to take Mercury with that much pressure. Meanwhile the republic with four worlds to exploit and a supportive Vox would be able to crush the remnants.