Nvidia ($NVDA) is scheduled to release its fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 financial results today, February 25, after the market close. This report is widely considered the most important data point for the AI sector this year, with the market pricing in an expected move of approximately 5.5% in either direction.

Key Financial Targets

• Revenue: Consensus estimates are sitting at $65.6B - $65.7B, which would represent a 67% increase year over year.
• EPS: Analysts are looking for adjusted earnings per share between $1.50 and $1.53.
• Q1 Guidance: The market expects a guide of around $72.4B for the next quarter. Anything lower could be interpreted as a cooling of the AI infrastructure cycle.
• Gross Margins: Watch for management's comments on maintaining margins in the mid-70s as production of new architectures scales up.

Strategic Points of Interest

1. Blackwell Shipment Volume: We need clarity on the production ramp. In previous calls, management suggested a massive revenue opportunity through late 2026. Investors will be looking for confirmation that supply chain bottlenecks are resolved.
2. Rubin Architecture Roadmap: Any updates on the Rubin platform for late 2026 will be critical for the long term bull case. This is key to maintaining a lead over custom silicon from hyperscalers.
3. Regional Revenue Mix: After recent export restriction shifts, there is focus on whether China revenue is stabilizing and returning to previous guidance levels.

Technical Levels

The stock has been consolidating between $170 and $195 for several months.

• Resistance: A decisive beat and raise could push the price through the $200 psychological barrier toward new highs near $210.
• Support: In the event of a "sell the news" reaction, watch for support at $170 or the 200-day moving average near $173.

Current sentiment on prediction markets shows a high probability of an earnings beat, but lower confidence in holding the immediate post-market gains.

What are your expectations for the call? Are you holding through the volatility or looking to play the reaction tomorrow morning?

Source: Reuters, Nasdaq, Investor Relations | Feb 25, 2026

Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. This post is for informational purposes. Do your own due diligence.