Looking for feedback from PMs on a probabilistic Control Framework idea

Hi guys,

Maybe this isn't the right place to ask, but I’d genuinely value some feedback from experienced PMs here. I’ve worked a number of years in project controls (mainly infrastructure / large programs), and Ive noticed projects keep running into the same issue:

We manage highly uncertain projects using single-number baselines and fairly subjective (if they even exist) risk registers. When things slip, we’re surprised even though the uncertainty was always there.

So I’ve been experimenting with something I call a “Control Framework” that treats uncertainty as something measurable and repeatable rather than something descriptive (based on RISMAN method. I think it's mostly a Dutch thing but I'm sure there's other similar ways of incorperating riskmanagement).

The core idea of the framework is:

• Use Monte Carlo not as a one-off risk exercise, but as a recurring measurement unit.
• Express schedule/cost forecasts in probabilities (P50/P80 etc.) instead of single dates.
• Identify actual risk drivers via sensitivity rather than relying only on qualitative registers.
• Aggregate portfolio-level confidence mathematically consistently (instead of averaging P-values or buffers).
• Create a governance loop: planning → quantified risk → simulation → decision insight → repeat.

I’ve put the concept into a small website (built with the help of vibe-coding and AI tools). It’s still early-stage and very much exploratory.

What I’d really like to understand from this community:

1. Is this a way of working you would actually use in your projects?
2. What would immediately make you skeptical?
3. What’s missing from this concept from a real PM perspective?
4. Would this help you in steering committees / governance discussions, or would it create more friction?
5. Where else would you suggest sharing or testing an idea like this?
6. Are there adjacent opportunities I might be overlooking?

I’m not trying to sell anything, I’m genuinely trying to test whether this solves a real pain or just a theoretical one. So if anyone is willing to look at the site and give blunt feedback, I’d appreciate it a lot.

Thanks in advance@ And if this isn’t the right subreddit for this kind of discussion, I’m happy to remove the post.