Mount Mercer avy risk

I'm wondering how risky it would be to hike the Mount Mercer trail (starting from Chipmunk FSR) tomorrow.

I'm aware the avy forecast is considerable/considerable/moderate for tomorrow with several avalanche problems on all aspects. I'm also aware the trail travels through challenging terrain.

However, I was looking at 3D maps with slope angle shading (gaia and outmap), and the trail seems to mostly stay around or under 25 degrees not exceeding 30 degrees with no obvious overhead hazards (except for cornices near the ridge maybe?).

So how big is the risk really? Please be nice, I'm just trying to learn here :) We are not dead set on this particular hike at all. I'm a very cautious person and would normally not even consider going near avy terrain in these conditions, but I'm trying to get better at assessing risk.

My hiking partner and I have avy gear, snowshoes, micro spikes. Neither of us own an ice axe or are trained to use one. I have my AST 1, but it's been a few years. hence the question. My hiking partner has done a backcountry introduction course that covered the basics of companion rescue but has not done his AST 1 yet. We are both fairly experienced (summer) hikers.

Thanks a lot in advance!