What the hell is going on this year

it's baffling to me where we are in 2026....markets can price an airstrike.... but..

They cannot price maybe overthrow the government that controls global oil. Are we that desensitised to major events now?

There’s a difference between a 48 hour spike and what if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a side quest.

If oil structurally resets higher, the Fed can’t rate hike a tanker through a blockade.

And how this spreads from here is actually one of the biggest question marks in my more than 2 decades in markets

Meanwhile...

Uber’s CFO just dropped $1.6M on his own stock. CFOs don’t YOLO.

Energy OTM calls > pretending your tech multiples survive $130 oil.

Selling panic in big banks = betting the financial system still exists next quarter.

Quantum stocks remain a very expensive chandelier with the word “qubit” attached.

We built AI trading models.

And now everything hinges on 21 miles of saltwater.

Hedge the tail. Follow insiders.

Add naval geography to your DCF.

https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-the-weekend