Mid-table side on the decline

TLDR; Results from the last 38 Prem games are that of a mid-table side, with recent results showing a worsening trajectory.

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For those who can be arsed with a long read...

10-man Villa, relegation threatened Spurs and Azerbaijan's finest in Qarabag were welcoming sticking plasters from a season that is hurting and eroding my faith in Eddie Howe being the man to take us through the next phase (Hopkinson wants us challenging for the title by 2030!).

Eddie is of course undisputed in his legendary status and forever etched into the history of our great club.

Recognising I had succumbed to the emotional high-lows of our season, I took a step back and looked at our medium term performance in the league.

Luckily for me, we've played the equivalent of a full Prem season since beating the Scouse mob at our national stadium... I've picked this as a starting point for a couple of reasons. First it's the pinnacle in our recent history and was a sign of a side on the up, second, it conveniently allows for review of a set of results in the Prem, which just so happens to tally to a full season.

So, we played 10 league games after 16 March 2025. (https://fbref.com/en/squads/b2b47a98/2024-2025/matchlogs/all\_comps/schedule/Newcastle-United-Scores-and-Fixtures-All-Competitions)

Won 6, Drew 1, Lost 3. (points per game for the whole season = 1.74)

It was a job done after beating Chelsea, but there were signs in our play that we were no longer heading on an upwards trajectory.

This has manifested in our 28 games played so far this season. (https://fbref.com/en/squads/b2b47a98/2025-2026/matchlogs/all\_comps/schedule/Newcastle-United-Scores-and-Fixtures-All-Competitions)

Won 10, Drew 6, Lost 12 (points per game = 1.29)

From a total of 38 games since our Carabao win, our results tally like this...

Won 16, Drew 7, Lost 15.

Which in turn gives us the equivalent of 55 points over a full season. Looking at recent seasons, this points haul would give us a finish of 11th (24-25), 9th (23-24), 10th (22-23), 8th (21-22) and 11th (20-21). Firmly rooted in mid-table (8th - 11th).

In the short term, results have taken a turn for the worse, with 3 points from a possible 18 (5 defeats from 6 and 3 consecutive home defeats).

In March, we face two sides from the top 6, who have both recently changed managers and are unbeaten runs of 10 (Man Utd) and 6 (Chelsea). We also face our freshly promoted adversary and despite being nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, somehow inconceivably sit a point behind them.

Our defence is in decline, we are conceding more goals per game (24-25 = 1.24, 25-26 = 1.5 ) and earning less clean sheets than last season (24-25 = 13, 25-26 = 7), (https://footystats.org/clubs/newcastle-united-fc-157)).

In attack, no shocks here, we're doing worse this season too. Last season we scored a goal every 50 mins and scored an average 1.79 per game, compared to 1.43 per game with a goal every 63 mins in this season ((https://footystats.org/clubs/newcastle-united-fc-157).

There are of course counter arguments. We have played 45 games so far this season, due to our cup runs, where our results are vastly improved, albeit against weaker opposition e.g. Champions League.

We've also suffered high levels of injuries, in January we were topping the table for most days lost due to injury (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c70l9y3p893o). This bares a striking resemblance to our previous champions league campaign season in 23/24, where we amongst the league leaders for days missed through injury (https://www.premierinjuries.com/article/2023-24-epl-season-injury-review).

A big talking point, has been consecutive summers of instability both at CEO and Director of Football. We don't have any stats on performance and impact beyond what we witness on both the pitch (results on the pitch - see above) and building of the playing squad to deliver these results (financials & transfers).

The latest Deloitte money league (based off 24-25 financials) has us at 17th in the world and thus 8th in the Prem. Our revenues are over €100m- their reports are calculated in Euros- higher than 9th in the Prem West Ham for those of you wondering (https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html).

Since the beginning of 21/22 season, the year PIF bought the club and Eddie joined, Transfermarkt has us as the 7th highest spenders in the Prem (€816m) and 5th highest net spend (€492m), (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/einnahmenausgaben/wettbewerb/GB1/plus/0?ids=a&sa=&saison\_id=2021&saison\_id\_bis=2025&nat=&pos=&altersklasse=&w\_s=&leihe=&intern=0).

Our salaries, footystats has us 7th highest salary bill in the Prem (€149m per season), which is a lot higher than current 7th - Brentford (€66m) and 8th - Everton (€98m), two sides occupying potential final european qualification spots, (https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/salaries).

All in all, it is clear that our spending power has vastly increased (higher transfer spend and higher wage spend) and therefore competing for 7th-8th would be expected to be minimum for the amount of financial resourcing being provided.

Sitting 12th in the league, we are not delivering the results expected and recent results have declined further. Eddie has admitted he is not delivering to the required levels and it needs to be balanced with the fact that Eddie has over delivered in recent seasons over multiple years.

March has become a make or break for the season and I hope that Eddie and the lads can find ways to win.

End of the season, there needs to be a review of the direction of the club and a plan set, for how the playing side can stop the decline in results.