Is anyone else tracking Dalio’s massive exit from Alphabet and Meta? It feels like a major regime shift.

I was just looking at Bridgewater’s recent moves and it’s honestly wild to see Dalio slashing Alphabet by 40% and Meta by 46%. These were the "safe" AI bets just a year ago, but the rotation seems to be happening much faster than I expected. It looks like the classic "Picks and Shovels" play is back in style. Instead of betting on who has the smartest chatbot (the "miners"), he’s rotating heavy into the infrastructure—specifically Nvidia, Micron, and Oracle. A few things that caught my eye: Model Saturation: With stuff like Claude 4.6 and open-source catching up, the software moat is shrinking. If everyone has a great AI model, the model itself becomes a commodity. The Capex Orgy: These hyperscalers are projected to spend $650B on infra by end of 2026. That’s a lot of margin pressure before we see clear ROI on the software side. Oracle as a Cloud Powerhouse: I used to think of Oracle as just a legacy database company, but seeing Nvidia and Meta lease their data centers (OCI) is a huge pivot. Dalio mentioned we might be in an "Early Bubble" phase, similar to the late 90s where Cisco and Intel peaked first because they were building the "pipes." Only after the pipes were ready did the software winners emerge. Are you guys still holding the hyperscalers, or are you following the money into the physical hardware layer? Personally, I think the "build phase" still has room to run because regardless of which AI app wins, they all need the same chips and data centers. Would love to hear some counter-arguments on why exiting Meta/Google right now might be premature.

Posted Mar 1, 2026, 2:34 PM UTC

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